tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post2093689524365635999..comments2022-03-01T02:13:04.240-07:00Comments on Big Sky Political Analysis: New poll--but same story in the Montana Senate RaceDavid Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-68815115543369904982012-02-25T16:30:08.184-07:002012-02-25T16:30:08.184-07:00Thanks for the comment, Moorcat--I especially appr...Thanks for the comment, Moorcat--I especially appreciate the historical context.David Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-25965856148618425492012-02-25T12:19:13.579-07:002012-02-25T12:19:13.579-07:00I have a couple of observations to make about this...I have a couple of observations to make about this polls and polls in general.<br /><br />1) I think it likely that polling this election cycle will be prone to more error than in previous cycles. This is due to the large number of people that have decided to self identify as independant (or without party). This number is higher than ever in history and is probably due to the rancor and dissatisfaction with the current rhetoric in politics.<br /><br />2) Due to this political shift, I think it likely that polling data will be skewed because the people likely to make the call (those in the middle) are not sure themselves what they are going to do at this point. Given this number is larger than before, even the error margins are probably larger than the pollsters think they are.<br /><br />Last, I would like to point out that Senator Tester was consistanly behind in the polls the year he was first elected. In the primary, most polling sources had him behind Morrison. In the General, most pollsters showed him behind Burns - sometimes by a significant amount.Moorcathttp://www.moorcat.com/roadlesstravelednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-7030304932046422182012-02-25T08:28:39.077-07:002012-02-25T08:28:39.077-07:00Great comment, James. Thanks--I found the article ...Great comment, James. Thanks--I found the article fascinating. So, eyeballing the chart, there's about a 75% chance Rehberg is indeed ahead. The one thing I'm curious to know--and this is important--is how Rasmussen defines a likely voter in their model...David Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-76426596218258862852012-02-25T04:40:53.132-07:002012-02-25T04:40:53.132-07:00The difference of 3% is within the 4.5% margin of ...The difference of 3% is within the 4.5% margin of error, but there's a strong probability that Rehberg is ahead. See http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_08/014294.phpJames Connerhttp://www.flatheadmemo.comnoreply@blogger.com