tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66954119955254371182024-03-05T00:18:58.253-07:00Big Sky Political AnalysisCreated and maintained by professors of political science at Montana State University, this website seeks to bring political science analysis to current political events in Montana, the United States, and across the globe. Our aim is to provide nonpartisan analysis and commentary in a political world replete with punditry and partisanship.David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.comBlogger186125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-91580273729590614392021-03-07T21:03:00.000-07:002021-03-07T21:03:53.350-07:00The UK Towns Fund: Did Conservative Constituencies Benefit? <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">This past week,
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak released the government’s 2021 budget.
Included in the package was an announcement of a £1 billion <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/towns-fund">Towns Fund</a> and notification
of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-56271275">45 communities in
England</a> to receive support for infrastructure improvements. This is part of
the Government’s Levelling Up promise made in the 2019 Conservative Party
manifesto, which would shift money to the left behind, post-industrial
communities of Britain that have suffered job and population losses over the
past four decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvX0-cKUAd1aNmP8zG-D07Zgc2i85IajCutvqJDg2pqfG4Y7gs6NBgDWvQQenq8tiBvIX8FTYwpbPLJ3g20hoAAi4ZtXh4HNL55Xb1miF-o2OHm6xli-WxtxR7vg7aMO1brr31XHRlKYCn/s1200/sunak.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvX0-cKUAd1aNmP8zG-D07Zgc2i85IajCutvqJDg2pqfG4Y7gs6NBgDWvQQenq8tiBvIX8FTYwpbPLJ3g20hoAAi4ZtXh4HNL55Xb1miF-o2OHm6xli-WxtxR7vg7aMO1brr31XHRlKYCn/w320-h320/sunak.jpg" title="Rishi Sunak and the 2021 Budget" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Soon after the
announcement, the Chancellor came under withering assault from the Labour
Party, which accused the government of allocating money generously to areas
represented by Tory MPs at the expense of communities more deserving of
assistance. Labour MP Steve Reed charged “the government of using taxpayers’
money to ‘shore up’ Tory votes with ‘cosmetic’ projects in hand-picked
constituencies” in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/04/towns-fund-fails-to-tackle-legacy-of-austerity-says-labour">The
Guardian</a>. </i>Labour Leader Keir Starmer said it <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-56282819">"looks fishy"</a>. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Guardian</i>’s own
analysis showed that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/03/sunaks-1bn-of-town-deals-will-nearly-all-go-to-tory-constituencies">39
out of 45 areas receiving funds have Tory MPs</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Did Boris Johnson’s government
dole out cash to communities for political purposes rather than sending aid to
communities with the most need? It has long been suggested that distributive
politics—derisively called pork barrel spending—is largely absent from the
British political system. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Guardian</i>
and Labour’s claims, however, suggests otherwise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The problem with these
allegations is that alternative hypotheses are not examined. What if, for
example, the communities in the most need just happen to be represented by Tory
MPs? To unpack what’s going on requires a multivariate analysis controlling for
both political and social need variables in the dispensation of aid from the
Towns Fund.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">To test the claim that
politics—rather than community need—drove the decisions to give certain communities
Levelling Up funds, I collected data on all 533 English constituencies. First,
I simply noted which constituencies were represented by Tory MPs (indicated by
a 1, 0 otherwise). Next, I downloaded information pertaining to community need.
<a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7327/">The
English government produces several measures on the deprivation</a> of
communities, including data on health, education, and employment. Parliamentary
constituencies are then ranked from the most deprived (“1”) to the least
deprived (“533”) based upon an aggregation of these several measures of
deprivation. Finally, I pulled together information on the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8749/">marginality
of each constituency in the 2019</a> general election, which is simply the
percentage point difference between the first and second place finisher.
Smaller values indicate more electorally competitive constituencies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The dependent variable
for the analysis is whether the constituency received funds from the Towns Fund
in the budget announced last week—1 if yes, 0 otherwise. I then ran a logistic
regression with the aforementioned independent variables: Tory MP, Deprivation
Rank, and Marginality. The results appear below.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCx6YPr_LhLRvvnE2uuNTbeH20XbNureTuekxsOflhZ8rSosKpIzJoVV5B21MXJbUq_YZoCBr9bknAlG2THhKnujb9p89cHPcS8s53n2d9ub9hHpA7txcwMi-YGWKOf8RQYaOhVqeLd1Ri/s1311/towns_fund_analysis.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="1311" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCx6YPr_LhLRvvnE2uuNTbeH20XbNureTuekxsOflhZ8rSosKpIzJoVV5B21MXJbUq_YZoCBr9bknAlG2THhKnujb9p89cHPcS8s53n2d9ub9hHpA7txcwMi-YGWKOf8RQYaOhVqeLd1Ri/w400-h144/towns_fund_analysis.png" title="Table 1: Politics, Deprivation, and the Towns Fund" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Labour’s claims have
merit: constituencies with Tory MPs are significantly more likely to have
received funds from the Towns fund as compared to constituencies represented by
the opposition parties. And, the more marginal the constituency, the greater
the chance of getting money from the fund as denoted by the negative sign on
the marginality variable and its significance (p <.049).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">However, there is also
evidence that deprivation matters—so the decision to dispense cash is not only about
propping up Conservative party electoral fortunes. The deprivation variable is
negative and significant, meaning that better off communities are less likely
to receive Levelling Up funds. Money is flowing to communities in need, but
poorer communities have an even better shot if they elected a Tory MP in 2019
and did so in a tight election. For those of you interested in how well this
simple model operated, 92 percent of cases were correctly predicted.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Now that we know that
politics and need matter, how much do they affect the process and which factors
are most important? Looking at the marginal effects of the variables, it would
seem that marginality and having a Tory MP dwarf deprivation in the decision to
give communities infrastructure assistance. Having a Tory MP alone increases a
constituency’s chance of getting money from the Towns Fund by twelve percentage
points while shifting from a completely uncompetitive seat to one that was
essentially even electorally accounts for an increase of 14 percentage points
in the chances of getting money from the Fund. Similarly, moving from the least
deprived constituency to the most deprived constituency increases a
constituency’s chances by 21 percentage points. In other words, having a Tory
MP has the single largest effect on whether a community received a Towns Fund
grant.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">To illustrate how these
factors work in tandem on the probability of a constituency receiving financial
assistance from the Towns Fund, I’ve created a few scenarios. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Let’s assume, first, a
constituency where the winning party won by only 5 percentage points that is
ranked 100<sup>th</sup> in deprivation. This constituency is represented by a
Labour MP. The probability that constituency receives a grant is only 7 percent,
which I calculated using Stata’s margins command based upon the logit results
reported above.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">If we simply drop a
Conservative MP into that constituency, the probability of getting a grant
increases to 33 percent (with the point estimates outside the confidence
intervals).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">If we take the same
scenario above but make the constituency more deprived—moving from 100<sup>th</sup>
in deprivation to 50<sup>th</sup>—there is scant change in the probabilities:
10 percent if a Labour MP represents the constituency, and 40 percent if a
Conservative MP does (again, the confidence intervals do not overlap). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Finally, marginality has
important effects as well. Again, looking at a Labour represented constituency
that’s 100<sup>th</sup> in deprivation where the MP won by 15 percentage
points, the probability of receiving a grant is only 6 percent. With a Tory MP,
that increases to 28 percent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Compare
that to the first set of probabilities. The probability of receiving a grant
hardly moves at all for the Labour represented constituency. It declines for
the Conservative represented constituency by 5 percentage points, however.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Taking all of this
together and the patterns are clear: The Department of Treasury seems to have made
its grant allocation decisions based primarily on political factors and not on the
clear social needs of communities. Tory MPs in marginal constituencies were far
more likely to benefit from the Towns Fund scheme than Labour MPs representing
areas with higher levels of deprivation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><br /><p></p>David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-20744185083266933982020-09-10T21:36:00.000-06:002020-09-10T21:36:43.143-06:00The Removal of Montana Post Boxes: Evidence of Partisan Shenanigans <p style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="1000" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw-_TEIvwbssQGcJWptlFXaB7Fsn1qgR3PRw2RPs9ip3Om8QG-UHWA28GCf6glnQUeR2z5mKriPomrmNVXLBp9izWOPf7rGrLFeGl1jBkSP8Vh5Z3eqZzyf7GscmDqFAlaCY7yIGhqyEE4/s320/post+box.jpg" width="320" /></p><p>Working with Maritsa Georgiou at NBC Montana, I analyzed the removal of post boxes in the state of Montana and found that Democratic vote at the precinct level is associated with a higher probability that a post box is slated for removal. A discussion of the process by which I came to this disturbing conclusion is outlined below. You can access Maritsa's story about my analysis can be found <a href="https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/msu-political-scientist-analyzes-partisan-connection-to-usps-box-removals">here</a>. Below is the memo that I wrote for her, walking through the data and analysis.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u>The Data<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I was provided with the locations of all post boxes in the
state of Montana as of August 2020 and July 2019. As of July 2019, there were
1,438 box locations. As of August 2020, 12 box locations were added since July
2019 and another 47 removed or slated for removal. 302 locations are stand
alone boxes not located at post offices. 30 of these were removed or slated to
be removed in August of 2020 and 3 had been added after July 2019.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Data Collection<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">With precinct maps available online and phone calls to
county clerks throughout the state, I was able to locate the voting precinct
associated with each box address. I then gathered precinct level returns from
the 2018 Montana Senate election, specifically the percentage of the vote cast
for Democrat Jon Tester, from the Secretary of State’s website<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Next, I added county-level demographic data to each box
location. This data includes the percentage of college graduates in the county,
the population change over the past ten years, and the county’s population
density.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Statistical Models<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Unit of Analysis: Each individual box address.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dependent Variables (What we are predicting): Dichotomous
(0/1).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Was a box removed from the
location? No (0), Yes (1).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Was a box added to the location? No
(0), Yes (1).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Independent variables (Variables that explain box addition
or removal).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Demv = Democratic Vote at the
Precinct Level (Percentage ranging between 0 and 1)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">Postoffice =<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indicator variable. Is the address location
at a post office? (0 No, 1 Yes) This controls for box clusters around post
offices.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">Density: Population density at the
county level as reported by the Census (People per square mile).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">Pop_Change: Population change since
2010 at the county level as reported by the Census (Percentage ranging between
0 and 1).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;">Box_den: Total boxes in the county
divided by the county population. I simply totaled all the mailbox addresses in
each county and divided that by the county’s population as reported by the
Census (Express as a percentage ranging between 0 and 1).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The addition of these variables controls for other factors
which might reasonably be associated with the addition or removal of postal
boxes. This is to be sure that there isn’t a spurious correlation with box
removal and Democratic vote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Some basic numbers:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The average Democratic vote cast
where a box was removed: 64%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The average Democratic vote cast
where a box was left unchanged: 46%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The average Democratic vote cast
where a box was added: 49%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Results<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Table 1: Predicting Box Removal in Montana<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">. logit remove demv postoffice density pop_change box_den,
cluster(fips3)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Iteration 0:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>log
pseudolikelihood = -207.40096<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Iteration 1:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>log
pseudolikelihood = -199.71757<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Iteration 2:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>log
pseudolikelihood = -176.68126<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Iteration 3:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>log
pseudolikelihood = -176.53519<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Iteration 4:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>log
pseudolikelihood = -176.53486<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Iteration 5:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>log
pseudolikelihood = -176.53486<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Logistic regression<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Number of obs<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>=<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>1,450<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Wald chi2(5)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>=<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>13.22<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Prob > chi2<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>=<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.0214<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">Log pseudolikelihood = -176.53486<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pseudo R2<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>=<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>0.1488<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(Std. Err. adjusted for 56 clusters in fips3)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">------------------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>|<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Robust<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>remove |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coef.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Std. Err.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>z<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>P>|z|<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>[95% Conf. Interval]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>demv |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3.612453<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>1.550089<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2.33<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.020<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>.5743357<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>6.650571<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>postoffice |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-1.689901<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>.5109666<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-3.31<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.001<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-2.691378<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-.6884252<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>density |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-.0018252<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>.0173632<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-0.11<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.916<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-.0358564<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>.032206<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>pop_change |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2.330461<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>4.284481<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.54<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.586<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-6.066968<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>10.72789<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>box_den |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>123.6979<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>173.8481<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.71<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.477<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-217.0382<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>464.4339<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>_cons |<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-4.733514<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>1.130804<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-4.19<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.000<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-6.94985<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-2.517179<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 107%;">------------------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Explanation<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If a variable is significant (p-value of less than .05),
then this means there is a relationship between the variable and the dependent
variable. The sign on the variable tells the direction of the relationship.
Demv (Democratic vote cast in the precinct) is positively associated with box
removal, meaning the greater the Democratic vote, the higher the probability a
box gets removed. If a box is located at a post office, is it less likely to
get removed (denoted by the negative sign on the variable and the fact the
p-value is less than .05). Population density, Post box density, and population
change are NOT significantly related to box removal. The model correctly
classifies 97 percent of box removals (that’s really superb, but we also only
have few cases that differ from zero).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Predicted Probabilities<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To determine the magnitude of effect of Democratic vote
share on the probability of a box removal, we need to generate predicted probabilities.
Let’s consider Gallatin County, which has a population density of 34, a box
density of .006816, a population change of 27 percent, and for a box location
that is NOT outside of a post office. Now, let’s vary the Democratic vote share
at the precinct level from .23 (a precinct south of Manhattan) to .84 (a
precinct located near the university just south of downtown that includes a lot
of students living off campus). How does the probability of a box removal
change?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Table 2: Democratic Vote Share and Probability of Post
Box Removal<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 423px;">
<tbody><tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: none; height: 15.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Democratic Vote Share<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border: none; height: 15.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Probability of a Box Removal<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">23%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">30%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">40%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">7%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">50%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">9%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">60%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">13%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">18%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: none; height: 15.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="bottom" width="216">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">84%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border: none; height: 15.75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 155pt;" valign="bottom" width="207">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">26%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: white; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Caption:
Other variables held to represent Gallatin County and box locations not located
outside a postal </span>facility.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Across the range of precincts in Gallatin County, the
probability of postal box removal increases more than 6-fold as we move from
the most Republican precincts in the county to the most Democratic.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Statistical Notes<o:p></o:p></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I ran the model using a procedure know as a rare event logit
given the low number of cases. The results are substantively no different—the
same variables are significant. I also ran models predicting box additions and
found no relationship between the predictors listed above and the probability
of a box addition.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-70665159454958617032020-05-08T20:50:00.003-06:002020-05-08T20:50:48.320-06:00A Charge to the MSU Class of 2020: The Citizen as Essential WorkerToday, the Department of Political Science celebrated its graduates at our traditional Friday-Before-Graduation party. Alas, this year--because of COVID-19--we had to celebrate via Web Ex. We laughed, we cried, we shared memories over the past four years we've spent together.<br />
<br />
Every year, a faculty member is chosen to give a charge to the graduates. I became the new head this past December after a stint filling in for a semester while Dr. Wilmer was on sabbatical. I decided to give the charge myself this year. What follows is the speech I delivered to these fantastic students who will go out into the world and do wonderful things. I will miss them, but at the same time, our nation needs their energy, their passion, and their brilliance now more than ever.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">A Charge to the MSU Class
of 2020: The Citizen as Essential Worker<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">September 11, 2001</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">.
I’ll wager a bet that none of you graduating today have a clear memory of that
moment. I certainly do, and whenever I hear mention of 9-11, my mind snaps instantly
back to a particular image:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A plume of
smoke pouring from the North Tower of the World Trade Center right before—in
the background—a plane steers toward the South Tower. That plane is Flight 175,
destined to slam into that second tower shortly after 9 a.m. Eastern Time. Why does
my mind go there? I think it’s because that image encapsulates the realization
that—at that exact moment—it was clear what America was facing: A terrorist
attack and likely war with those harboring the monsters who killed thousands of
innocent men, women, and children. That still frame, to me, is one of those key
turning points in a nation’s history. We are still wrestling with the
consequences of that horrible day nearly twenty years later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">Right
now, we are living through another momentous time which will shape our
collective futures for a generation or more. What’s your picture representing
this moment?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">For
me, it’s a photo of a young man with black hair and bronzed skin. He’s clad in
green medical scrubs, standing astride an intersection in downtown Denver. His
arms are crossed, he’s wearing a medical mask, and he’s—angry? Determined?
Outraged? It’s hard to see with his mouth covered.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">In
front of him is a large pickup truck—a brand-spanking new silver Ram 1500. An
older, heavy-set woman, wearing a T-shirt with USA emblazoned on the front, is
leaning out of the passenger window—(Screaming? Glaring? It’s not clear)—at the
medical worker blocking her car. She’s holding a placard with the words, “Land
of the Free” flush against the side of the truck’s door. Is she going to or
departing from a rally opposing the stay at home order put in place by
Colorado’s Governor? We don’t know—and that’s fitting because there is so much
uncertainty in the depths of this pandemic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">For
me, that’s the COVID-19 moment. With whom do you identity, graduates? The
defiant healthcare worker or the woman demanding her freedom? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">It
was a stifling hot summer in Philadelphia when 56 men affixed their signatures
to parchment, detailing to the world how King George had violated the social
contract—and that the only remedy was to sunder the binds tying the 13 American
colonies to England. Freedoms had been withheld and denied, yes. But those
freedoms had been trampled upon by a government that was not representative.
The colonies had no members of Parliament. We had no say in the decisions made
for us. The Declaration is often remembered—and idealized—because it is viewed
as an expression of the freedoms that people ought to enjoy by virtue of their
humanity—rights that no government should easily deny.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">But
as much as Jefferson’s Declaration is one of independence from Britain, it is also
a Declaration of Inter-dependence among those proclaiming the birth of a new
nation. Let’s not forget the concluding sentence:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%; mso-themecolor: text1;">“And for the support of this
Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we
mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor</span><span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">.”</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">Back
to that picture in Denver. It’s easy to say don’t tread on me—like that woman
in the ginormous pickup truck. Oh, I bet it felt so damn good to release all that
frustration. Haven’t we felt some of that? Don’t you hunger for
companionship—to go to the grocery store sans mask, to hug your friends, to
belly up to the bar for a drink with your buddies after a long day of school? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">But
then there’s that man clad in protective gear in front of that car, reminding
us that those hugs, those trips to the grocery store without sanitizer, those
shared beers, or an in-person graduation celebration—can come at great cost.
Perhaps not for us—but maybe for that nurse in the ER, the grocery store clerk
checking us out, the bartender pouring that beer, or the elderly relative
sitting in the Field House as you walk across the stage. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">Freedom
without responsibility to each other is just another form of tyranny. The
Founding Fathers got it; they knew that a declaration of freedom is worth no
more than the paper upon which it is printed without care for each other. The
freedoms we now enjoy were collectively earned and are collectively defended.
Are the costs we bear now any higher than those born by previous generations
charged with protecting this nation? It is a point worth pondering.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">Our
inter-dependence is essential, so I find it disturbing that the Department of
Homeland Security’s definition of so-called essential workers neglected perhaps
the most important job of all: Citizen. Our allegiance in this liberal
democracy of ours is to each other—we are all essential. To be free, we citizens
must all hang together— at six feet apart (!)—or surely, we will hang
separately. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%;">Graduates
of the Class of 2020. I remind you that to establish justice, ensure domestic
tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and
secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity required the
founders to strive for a more perfect <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">union</b>.
To be more perfect: Together. Your charge is to work on that union as citizens,
mindful of what we owe each other, while being kind to ourselves and others
during these turbulent times.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-19600854510984747672020-03-31T22:22:00.001-06:002020-03-31T22:22:20.009-06:00How COVID-19 Might Transform the Montana Senate RaceIn political science, there's a well-known phenomenon known as the "Rally Around the Flag Effect". Quite simply, when the nation is under threat, the public turn to and give their support to the president. Two very good examples of this are the Presidents Bush: When Iraq invaded Kuwait and the Twin Towers were attacked on September 11th, Presidents George HW Bush and George W. Bush enjoyed a quick surge in public support in public opinion polls.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhifSTbOD1oJO2kuKLeP9CvvJS252lw3D738Mt5tPHp5TP27vkfx_GUBxlu4HgPkQK-T5EGlBCZ6p6pAv4iBNzNYozMGQRW8KYIIrh6XQ3LJF_1Jn7wuu1lBP5tNcwVciuN3epwQXpjE5R4/s1600/GHWBUSH+RALLY.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="720" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhifSTbOD1oJO2kuKLeP9CvvJS252lw3D738Mt5tPHp5TP27vkfx_GUBxlu4HgPkQK-T5EGlBCZ6p6pAv4iBNzNYozMGQRW8KYIIrh6XQ3LJF_1Jn7wuu1lBP5tNcwVciuN3epwQXpjE5R4/s320/GHWBUSH+RALLY.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpU2SbHnP3OqRLtgGyvtR2SJzfKdC7gXd36OAqGSL7lpyzIMHOvsh76XgL_AAVyF8xuxbCqS6y_gzk2sIKwTwHpymwHGz92AfdX9fk5OAWfOnl9Eke3mQc9BvNh7oog9a_WOHTpkB2Mw-T/s1600/GWBUSH_RALLY.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="720" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpU2SbHnP3OqRLtgGyvtR2SJzfKdC7gXd36OAqGSL7lpyzIMHOvsh76XgL_AAVyF8xuxbCqS6y_gzk2sIKwTwHpymwHGz92AfdX9fk5OAWfOnl9Eke3mQc9BvNh7oog9a_WOHTpkB2Mw-T/s320/GWBUSH_RALLY.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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It is also the case that other executives experience surges in public support during time of crisis. We've seen Governor Cuomo's numbers surge in New York, and it's surely the case that other governors are suddenly more popular during this unprecedented and difficult global crisis.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJsVm2F8ZasdOTjbdqWgdmIj4mcppLUlo5kwaavTILL0Zq25_IO-fWDuwQ0Xrnmsjo8g4al0A7s58QvPTOgQpvCRL3_arR844yxM8yvKRXoXoWqtDEoFXer6aqB_eW3zFCAabEYi44CRl0/s1600/cumo_approve.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="1024" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJsVm2F8ZasdOTjbdqWgdmIj4mcppLUlo5kwaavTILL0Zq25_IO-fWDuwQ0Xrnmsjo8g4al0A7s58QvPTOgQpvCRL3_arR844yxM8yvKRXoXoWqtDEoFXer6aqB_eW3zFCAabEYi44CRl0/s320/cumo_approve.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Part of the rally effect is likely in part due to the fact that a crisis moment is a focusing event for the media: it drives other stories off the front pages. In the case of 9-11 and the current COVID-19 pandemic, these stories became the only story covered by the media. Nearly every cable channel turned to 9-11 coverage, sporting events were cancelled, and travel halted. In the case of COVID-19, there is almost nothing else to cover: not only are sporting events cancelled as they were during 9-11, but nearly everything else in society has ground to a halt. The only way to avoid COVID-19 is to read a book or binge shows on Netflix.</div>
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How does the singular coverage of a crisis by the media potentially generate a rally effect? Executives are the actors who receive the bulk of the coverage during the crisis. Governors and presidents have emergency powers they can draw upon--often enshrined in constitutions and in statutes--which empower them to respond decisively and quickly to coordinate relief efforts. Legislators obviously respond by passing appropriations and emergency legislation to address the crisis, but it is the responsibilities of executives to put those directives and appropriations to work. As a result--with all eyes focused on the crisis--governors simply get more media attention and that attention is very often positive. The sheer act of moving--of doing--to make people feel safe can generate goodwill from the public. Governors also provide information from the many executive agencies they lead and which are responsible for addressing the crisis. Legislators simply get lost in the shuffle: there are too many and while their response can be just as crucial, it can seem by comparison less dramatic and direct.</div>
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How does this matter for the U.S. Senate race here in Montana? It could very well matter a lot. Why? Because in a period where electioneering is challenging at best, Governor Bullock is dominating earned media. And that earned media is overwhelmingly, if not exclusively, positive. Steve Daines, on the other hand, is receiving almost no coverage by comparison.</div>
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How do I know? I ran the numbers. Here at Montana State University, I have access to Access World News--a database of news coverage spanning the globe. Very simply, I selected media coverage in Montana from April 2019 through the March 30, 2020, searching for "Bullock" and "Daines" respectively. I also did a similar search for former Governor Brian Schweitzer between April 2011 and March 2012 to provide a baseline comparison to Governor Bullock's coverage. The results are reported in Figure 1, which reports the trend in coverage by the total number of articles mentioning Bullock, Daines, and Schweitzer by month. I simply counted all articles--including editorials and letters to the editors.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRdM7crF1bs4DNc4Hb-o6Zjlx3dW5dVIRhz9cWkD2xRe0j86rpQitY6_WT6AvE3WTFT9acVV895ja8C1veLX02j5g44h-qUbf0X-YmQGm4KzRizPSSvZw4yW3ofqidSbfUOO5n7_IXbAQg/s1600/Figure1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRdM7crF1bs4DNc4Hb-o6Zjlx3dW5dVIRhz9cWkD2xRe0j86rpQitY6_WT6AvE3WTFT9acVV895ja8C1veLX02j5g44h-qUbf0X-YmQGm4KzRizPSSvZw4yW3ofqidSbfUOO5n7_IXbAQg/s320/Figure1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1: MT Media Mentions April 2019 (2011) to March 2020 (2012)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Under normal circumstances, one might expect that Governor Bullock to receive minimal coverage after the conclusion of the legislative session when--for all intents and purposes--he's a lame duck. This should also be the case for Schweitzer, who was in a similar position at the end of his second term. If one compares Governor Bullock's coverage to Governor Schweitzer's, that seems to be the pattern for both of them until March. There's a spike in May 2012 and May 2019 for each: Schweitzer responded to a series of terrible floods in the state, while Bullock announced his presidential run. Senator Daines' coverage is a bit lower than Governor Bullock's during this period, but not appreciably so--in fact, he even receives more mentions in January and February of 2020.</div>
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And then, the Corona virus hits the US, and Governor Bullock goes from 184 articles mentioning him in February to 809 in March--while Senator Daines stays essentially the same.</div>
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A closer look at March in Figure 2 maps this even more precisely. At the beginning of the month, Daines and Bullock had a near-parity in media coverage up to and including the day Bullock declared his intention to contest Daines' Senate seat. But, as the COVID crisis hit America, Bullock's coverage began to take off while Daines remained steady: 36 stories on March 12, 28 on the day Governor Bullock announced the state's first COVID cases, 51 on March 16, 36 on the day Bullock extended school closures (March 24), and 69 (the series high) when the Governor announced his shelter in place order.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBhFzE8zgx2dNUxOdZvRLQ78jeOFpSX91asv7_J33XCaSgKV830LyYqdlpXImkKy8d68cf-w-azdHzmc6E46BHSGGBVqEKFwMlB6t75Jf0mr4uVtG-O34VowstzImmeqKqzps48SqgaY6O/s1600/Figure2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBhFzE8zgx2dNUxOdZvRLQ78jeOFpSX91asv7_J33XCaSgKV830LyYqdlpXImkKy8d68cf-w-azdHzmc6E46BHSGGBVqEKFwMlB6t75Jf0mr4uVtG-O34VowstzImmeqKqzps48SqgaY6O/s320/Figure2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2: MT Media Mentions in March 2019</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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By comparison, Daines' best day was 16 articles on March 17 when the Senate came back into session to discuss the House COVID-19 relief package. </div>
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The nature of the global pandemic has upended daily life. It certainly has turned electioneering upside down; how does one campaign when you can't hold rallies, hang out with voters, pop in to TV studios for interviews, or raise money? It may also have changed some of the dynamics in the Montana Senate race, giving Governor Bullock a crucial early advantage in the spring that under normal circumstances he would not have.</div>
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David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-26234973617042213862020-02-01T19:27:00.001-07:002020-02-04T16:52:04.900-07:00The Profound Ignorance of Senators Lamar Alexander and Steve Daines<div class="MsoNormal">
NOTE: I re-titled the blog after watching Senator Daines' recent comments on impeachment on the Senate floor. The ignorance extends to him as well, apparently.<br />
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Senator Lamar Alexander’s explanation for who should decide what to do about the president’s actions in Ukraine is absurd, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and represents fundamental ignorance about the Founders.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In an interview with Chuck Todd, Senator Alexander suggests that while he found the actions by President Trump concerning the withholding of aid to Ukraine inappropriate, the were not impeachable and—furthermore—that whether they merit removal is a judgment best left to the people. Here the link to the clip: <o:p></o:p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/lamar-alexander-says-senate-should-not-substitute-its-judgment-voters-n1128286">https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/lamar-alexander-says-senate-should-not-substitute-its-judgment-voters-n1128286</a></div>
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Let’s address the final point first: the people, and not the Senate, should decide in the forthcoming election whether the Ukraine allegations merit removal. Hogwash. </div>
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First, the Founders were not democrats (small d) but republicans (small r). All kinds of checks and balances are put in place to insulate government institutions from the voice of the people because the Founders feared mob rule—particularly mob rule swayed by a demagogue. The Founders created the Electoral College, with voters casting votes for electors who—according to the scheme laid out in the Constitution—were supposed to exercise independent judgment when selecting the president. Furthermore, the founders expected (wrongly, it turns out) that it would be challenging for any candidate to achieve a majority of votes in the electoral college; thus, the House of Representatives would often decide who would serve as president. All of these factors point quite clearly to the notion that will of the people is really to be refined by several institutional checks and filters.<o:p></o:p></div>
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So, to Alexander’s point: No. It’s up to the Senators to decide whether the act is impeachable or not. Not the people in elections. That represents a profound ignorance of the Constitution and the situation facing the Founders.<o:p></o:p></div>
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To the second point about to what constitutes a high crime and misdemeanor, it is absolutely clear that the Founders were petrified about foreign influence in elections and the conduct of national affairs. This is why the citizenship and residency requirements exist for the presidency: To prevent a European puppet from taking the throne. I have to assume at some point Senator Alexander read President Washington’s Farewell address, which cautions the nation about entangling foreign alliances. Seeking foreign involvement in an election is precisely what President Trump did (and Alexander does not contest this point), which is precisely what the Founders thought was dangerous. And, to be plain, it is exactly the Senate that should decide these issues because they are supposed to be removed from the passions of the people given their longer terms and (at least at the Founding) their indirect election. I read the Federalist papers in college. Did they?<o:p></o:p></div>
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Then, there’s the stubborn fact (as John Adams would write) that the president broke the law: His withholding the aid in the first place was an illegal impounding (I cover this in my presidency and Congress class; Congress appropriates, and the Supreme Court has upheld this repeatedly) and he was accepting aid to assist in his reelection (breaking those silly campaign finance laws put into place after massive abuses by the Nixon campaign forces that had little to do with Watergate).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Finally, the issue of removal from office and the ability to run for president in the future. Yes, a grave action indeed—but again, given the fear of Kings and demagogues, again, this is precisely why the Senate must have this ability. The danger is a president who is supported by the majority of the people—that pesky majority tyranny that Madison warned against—who must be removed from the ballot because they can manipulate the popular will to retain office and work their will to oppress the minority. The Senate is a check on this! As Hamilton himself wrote (and Congressman Schiff quoted during the Senate trial):<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "georgia" , serif;">When a man unprincipled in private life desperate in his fortune, bold in his temper, possessed of considerable talents, having the advantage of military habits — despotic in his ordinary demeanour — known to have scoffed in private at the principles of liberty — when such a man is seen to mount the hobby horse of popularity — to join in the cry of danger to liberty — to take every opportunity of embarrassing the General Government & bringing it under suspicion — to flatter and fall in with all the non sense of the zealots of the day — It may justly be suspected that his object is to throw things into confusion that he may ‘ride the storm and direct the whirlwind.’</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Here's the link:<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-12-02-0184-0002">https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-12-02-0184-0002</a></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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On a personal note, I worked as a field staffer for Senator Alexander fresh out of college more than twenty years ago—on his presidential campaign. To say that I am disappointed in his position and behavior is a gross understatement. America deserved better from him—and the rest of the Republican caucus in the U.S. Senate. If you are upset, you know what to do. Vote like your life depends on it--because it does.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-45014274037655877922018-04-02T08:14:00.002-06:002018-04-02T08:14:25.736-06:00Carhartt, Bloodlines, and Place of Birth: The Recurrent Battle Over Who’s the Most Montanan<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;">This is a special guest post by Kal Munis, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Virginia. Kal is a lifelong Montanan, and is an alum of both Montana State and the University of Montana. I expect to feature his work often here.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">With the 2018
midterm elections just a little over seven months away, candidates have begun
to ramp up efforts to distinguish themselves from one another. In addition to
the various typical dimensions on which we might expect those aspiring to
represent us to stress their unique qualifications—such as prior political
experience, policy positions and past accomplishments—there is another
conspicuous characteristic upon which political candidates in Montana attempt
to out-maneuver one another: successfully conveying that they possess an
authentic Montanan identity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Typically, candidates try to signal to voters that
they share with them various attachments to the customs, values, and lived
experiences particular to their geographical constituency. They do so in
numerous ways including in video advertisements, mailers, press releases,
emails, social media postings and other campaign media. It should be noted that
these activities don’t stop at election day—indeed, many politicians will
continue to cultivate their image of place-based authenticity as a component of
what political scientists refer to as their “home-style.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Candidates in
Montana and elsewhere clearly engage in this behavior cycle after cycle due a
belief in the campaign community that it is an effective practice. In a content
analysis of all video based advertisements that were paid for by campaigns
during the 2012 and 2014 U.S. Senate elections, I found that these types of ads
are widespread throughout the country, with the highest level of usage being
clustered in Western states such as Montana. Despite their seeming ubiquitousness,
it remains unknown whether campaigns' decisions to deploy these appeals are
evidence based or the product of folk-wisdom based inertia. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Irrespective of their effectiveness, however,
some </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/q66f389/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/Content.Outlook/P81ECNTU/:%20http:/mtpr.org/post/infrastructure-attack-ads-and-conrad-burns-legacy"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">pundits</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> (and voters—see
the </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/montanademocrats/videos/10155806442177639/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">comments on this
ad</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">)
have remarked that excessive hand-wringing over which candidate is the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">most Montanan</i> borders on xenophobic,
particularly when such concerns are tied to place of birth. At the same time,
however, it seems widely accepted that the success of many candidates in
Montana, particularly Democrats Senator Jon Tester and Governor Steve Bullock
(as well as former Governor Brian Schweitzer), has been largely predicated on
their ability to connect with voters on the basis of place. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In large part, the
mechanism through which this connection has been fostered in Montana, as well
as that upon which many campaign appeals based on place identity are made, is the
candidate's birthplace. For successful Democratic candidates in Montana, it
seems that part of the litmus test has been whether they’re a native of the
state. For a recent example, look no further than Governor Bullock’s successful
2016 reelection bid against then Republican gubernatorial candidate and current
U.S. Representative Greg Gianforte. In that race, the Bullock campaign was able
to successfully paint Gianforte as an outsider with deep connections to
California and New Jersey. So out of touch with Montana was Gianforte,
according to Bullock’s campaign, that he was willing to try to run roughshod
over that which many Montanans hold to be most sacred: public lands. The
narrative was simple: Bullock, a native Montanan, respects and maintains
Montana values, whereas Gianforte—a Californian multi-millionaire by way of New
Jersey—does not. The result, meanwhile, was shocking, as returns revealed that
Bullock defeated Gianforte by 4 points, all while Gianforte’s co-partisan in
the presidential race, Donald Trump, crushed his Democratic foe by a staggering
22 points.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">As part of the
2018 midterm elections, Tester will defend his Senate seat and multiple
Republicans are competing in their party’s primary to challenge him. Currently,
most observers regard Matt Rosendale as being the front runner among these
challengers. And, if recent advertisements are any indication, it would seem
that several left-aligned groups, including the Montana Democratic Party, consider
him to be the front-runner as well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In a </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/montanademocrats/videos/10155806442177639/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">recent
advertisement</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">,
the MTDP makes an overtly place identity charged indictment of “Maryland Matt” Rosendale,
namely that he is an outsider who “doesn’t share our Montana values.” In the
ad, the MTDP takes a ‘don’t just take our word for it’ strategy by relying
mostly upon statements made by (or on behalf of) prominent Montana Republicans,
as well as upon a compilation of footage of Rosendale himself butchering the
pronunciation of the state he is running to represent in Washington. The statements
(which are attributed variously to current U.S. Senate primary opponent Russ
Fagg, former U.S. House primary opponent and current Secretary of State Cory
Stapleton, and to a PAC that supported Ryan Zinke in the 2014 Republican
primary for the U.S. House of Representatives) all suggest that Rosendale’s
non-native born status should be viewed as a deficiency in the eyes of voters. Of
these statements, Stapleton’s makes the case against Rosendale’s non-native status
most powerfully, stating “we don’t need that East Coast value here in Montana,
we don’t need somebody from the East Coast representing us in Montana, we need a
Montanan representing us on the East Coast.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">This theme, though
in decidedly less antagonistic tone, was on display yet again a few weeks ago in
Bozeman at the Republican </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/MSUCR/videos/1650056755041872/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">U.S. Senate candidate
forum</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">
(not a debate!) put on by the College Republicans at Montana State University.
The forum, which featured Rosendale and his three opponents, Troy Downing (a
fellow non-native from California), Albert Olszewski, and Russel Fagg, saw all
candidates take pains to stress their connections to Montana and demonstrate
their embrace of Montana values. Rosendale and Downing (the non-native
candidates) did so in decidedly apologetic fashion, with the following
statement by Downing being emblematic of the tone: “I’ve always been a
Montanan, it just took me 31 years to get here.” Fagg and Olszewski (the native
candidates), meanwhile made their born and raised Montanan bonafides front and
center from the outset, with Fagg, for example, noting that he “has the Montana
roots, the Montana endorsements, (and) the Montana donations.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">It was a portion
of Fagg’s closing statement as well as Rosendale’s that followed, however, that
really drew my attention. In his last appeal to the crowd in Bozeman that
night, Fagg made his case that his native Montana roots would be critical to
defeating native Jon Tester in 2018. “I’m a fourth generation Montanan…and (my
family) has live and loved Montana since before Montana was a state,” he said “[…]
and the reason that’s important, I appreciate everyone that has moved to
Montana because they love Montana, but the Democrats are going to unmercifully
beat up two of my opponents because they moved here nine years ago (Downing)
and fifteen years ago (Rosendale). It may not be fair, but it’s the truth. If
you put me on that ticket, that takes that argument away from Senator Tester.” Fagg
then went on to note that he has to date collected the lion’s share of
endorsements from prominent Montana Republicans from well-known names such as
Marc Racicot and Denny Rehberg (Rosendale, meanwhile, has the support of
prominent national Republicans such U.S. Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee)
before passing the mic to Rosendale. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Fagg’s point was
brought into stark relief just moments later when Rosendale mispronounced
“Montana” so badly that even I, a social scientist who studies the role of
place-based identities in politics, couldn’t help but to find it grating. In my
defense, it was the contrast of Rosendale’s mispronunciation and Fagg’s ominous
message regarding the importance of Montana roots in eyes of Montana voters
that made the moment so powerful. And, apparently I wasn’t the only one to
notice—the MTDP released the “Maryland Matt” ad just a few days later and
appeared to indirectly reference the forum in a short blurb accompanying the
ad’s posting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Do voters care
about where candidates were born? To begin to investigate this question, I draw
upon data from three different surveys that I have fielded (one in Autumn 2015,
one in Spring 2017, and another in early fall 2017) utilizing Mechanical Turk
samples. All respondents in these surveys reside in the United States. Within
each survey, I included a question asking whether and how important respondents
thought it was that candidates running for Congress in their state had been
born there. In the most recent two surveys, an additional question was asked
regarding whether respondents felt that candidates born in their state were
more likely to understand the values and needs of people in their state.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Table 1: How important do you think it is
for candidates running for Congress<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">in your state to have been born in your
state?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fall 2015<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Spring 2017<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fall 2017<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Extremely Important<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 72.25pt;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
25<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(5%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
200<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(11%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
130<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(11%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Very Important<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 72.25pt;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
117<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(25%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
368<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(20%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
255<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(22%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Moderately Important<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 72.25pt;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
136<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(29%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
496<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(28%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
300<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(26%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 29.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="height: 29.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Slightly Important<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 29.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 72.25pt;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
87<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(18%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 29.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
320<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(18%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 29.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
232<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(18%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Not at all important<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 72.25pt;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
111<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(23%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
423<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(23%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
229<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(23%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">N<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 72.25pt;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
476<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
1,807<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
1,146<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Results for the
first question are remarkably stable across all three samples, as can be seen
in Table 1. In the most recent sample, one third of respondents indicated that
they felt candidate place of birth to be highly important (including both the
“extremely important” and “highly important” categories). A little over a
quarter of respondents indicated candidate place of birth to be moderately important.
Meanwhile, a minority of respondents (41%) indicated that candidate place of
birth is only slightly important or not important at all to them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Table 1: In general, do you think that
candidates born in your state are better<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">at understanding the values and needs of
people in your state?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-insideh: none; mso-border-insidev: none; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Spring 2017<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fall 2017<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Yes<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
853<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(47%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 14.1pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
554<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(48%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
No<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
287<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(16%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
144<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(13%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Unsure<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
667<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(37%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="height: 14.85pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
450<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">(39%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.85pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.5pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">N<o:p></o:p></i></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
1,807<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.85pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 69.1pt;" valign="top" width="92">
<div align="center" class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: center;">
1,146<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As
for respondents’ perceptions regarding whether native born candidates are more
likely to better understand the values and needs of their constituency, a large
plurality in both samples (an average of 47.5%) indicated that they felt this
was the case, with a small minority (an average of 14%) of respondents saying
this wasn’t likely to be the case. A large number of respondents in both
samples indicated that they were unsure regarding this question (38%). These
results are presented in Table 2.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>To
further explore responses to these questions, I use various methods (including
ANOVA, OLS, and logistic regression) to model the relationship between
responses to these questions and respondents’ partisanship.<a href="file:///C:/Users/q66f389/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/Content.Outlook/P81ECNTU/BSPA_post1_edited.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> First, I estimate the
association between how important respondents rated candidate birthplace and respondents’
partisanship while controlling for the influence of other background
characteristics. Results show that, on average, the place of birth of political
candidates is significantly more important to Republicans (by about 25%) than
it is for Democrats even after controlling for the influence of respondents'
level of educational attainment, gender, self-reported recent voting history,
and whether the respondent lived in a rural area. Moreover, further analysis
reveals that Republicans’ average importance rating of candidate place of birth
is significantly higher than that of independents as well, though Democrats and
independents do not differ significantly from one another in this respect. Finally,
I model the association between partisanship and perceptions of whether being
born in state imparts upon candidates a special constituency related knowledge
(all while again controlling for a number of other related factors). Results
indicate that Republicans are 4.5 times more likely on average to indicate that
candidates born in their state typically better understand the values and
problems associated with that state.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Taken
together, these results suggest that many Americans see candidate place of
birth as being an important attribute of political candidates. More
specifically, a majority of people in my sample indicated that it is at least
moderately important that candidates be born in the state that they seek to
represent in Congress, with a full third indicating that they feel it is highly
important. Moreover, a plurality of respondents indicated that they believe
that candidates born in the state they are running in are more likely to
understand the needs and values of their constituency. Results also indicate a
significant association between these considerations and partisanship, with
Republicans endorsing both to a greater extent than non-Republicans on average.
All of this is especially noteworthy considering that these results are derived
from a sample comprising survey respondents from all across the United States.
And, in terms of demographic characteristics, the sample skews slightly younger,
more liberal, and more educated than the American population as a whole—as well
as Montana. So, if anything, I would expect the patterns and statistical
associations described above to increase in magnitude if the sample were one
perfectly representative of Montana.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Finally,
in relating all of this back to Montana politics, the results presented here
seem to lend <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">some</i> credence to Republican
candidate Russ Fagg’s (as well as many others) warning to Republican primary
voters that (in)congruence between where candidates are born and the district
they hope to represent is important to voters—and, at least in this sample,
especially amongst self-identified Republicans. And, since Tester will almost
certainly have to win over a considerable percentage of voters who recently
voted for our Republican president, these results suggest that one fruitful
path for him to do so would be to continue to appeal to voters on the basis of shared
Montana values and identity (as Bullock did in his successful 2016 reelection
bid). Whether and to what degree he is able to do so could very well be
moderated by whether a native-born Republican, such as Fagg or Olszewski, is at
the top of the Republican ticket.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">B.
Kal Munis is, amongst other things, a 6<sup>th</sup> generation Montana native
and alumnus of both Montana State University and the University of Montana. He
is currently a PhD candidate in the Woodrow Wilson Department of Politics at
the University of Virginia. You can follow him on Twitter </span></i><a href="https://twitter.com/KalMunis"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">@KalMunis</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
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<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/q66f389/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/Content.Outlook/P81ECNTU/BSPA_post1_edited.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> If you want more specifics on the
data and my analyses, please send me an email or leave a comment below.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-12256234162649878442017-09-21T11:02:00.001-06:002017-09-21T11:07:12.834-06:00Correlation Does Not Equal Causation: Lawsuits, Pirates, Forest Fire, and Global Warming<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yesterday, <i>The Washington
Post</i> published an </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-american-west-is-burning/2017/09/20/dfa03c12-9d7d-11e7-9c8d-cf053ff30921_story.html?utm_term=.bab7d51589df"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">op-ed
piece</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> written by Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines
about the awful wildfire season we’ve been experiencing here in Montana and the
West. It is good to bring attention to an issue that has gotten lost in the
coverage of the widespread devastation hitting Texas, Florida, and now Puerto
Rico during an unusually intense start to the hurricane season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is troubling, however, how Senator Daines takes a
very complicated issue—the causes and consequences of wildfire—and lays blame
squarely on the shoulders of “radical environmentalists” and their lawsuits,
which he purports prevent efforts to clear and thin trees by forest managers. If these lawsuits would only cease, writes
Daines, wildfires would be less intensive, less pervasive, and produce fewer
damaging greenhouse gases. And, perhaps as importantly, Montanans would have
more jobs as there would be more timber for mills to process into lumber. Stop
the lawsuits, and everyone would benefit!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Senator Daines was a champion debater in high school,
and like a skilled orator, he does his best to frame the facts to best advance
his core thesis. In so doing, he intentionally obscures or downplays the
biggest drivers of fire: </span><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/why-is-2017-so-bad-for-wildfires-climate-change/539130/"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">temperature
and climate</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. At best, that’s disingenuous. At worst,
it gives us false hope for the power of forest management in stemming the
effects of wildfire in the West.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Let’s unpack just one point Senator Daines makes in
his article: the association between acres burned and declining timber
harvests. Daines tells us that “<span style="color: #111111;">If you look at the
decline in timber harvests on National Forest land since 1990, you can’t miss
the correlation between harvesting and wildfire. Harvests drastically declined
and, combined with the legal obstacles preventing the removal of fire
fuel, </span>wildfires grew larger<span style="color: #111111;"> and more
severe. We have effectively increased the risk of wildfire by allowing
cluttered forest floors to build up with more material that can burn.” <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #111111;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The logic seems crystal clear: Declining
timber harvests have increased fuel loads, which lead to more and more
intensive forest fires. The reason? Lawsuits from the aforementioned radical
environmentalists. And Senator Daines links to a study conducted by The Nature Conservancy
and the U.S. Forest Service in support of his claim that “an abundance of
science shows that a properly managed forest would reduce the size and severity
of wildfires.” Stop the lawsuits, and we’ll have better managed forests with
smaller and less severe wildfires, he argues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If only it were so simple. This Sunday morning, <a href="http://www.kbzk.com/">MTN</a> is airing a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtzQXzQChFHL1XtyL3ru-OA">Face the State</a>
devoted to the problem of fire in the West. I encourage you to tune in. In
preparing for the show, it was immediately apparent to me how complicated the
issue of fire is in the American West even if I am not a fire ecologist—or any
kind of ecologist. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But there’s one thing I do know as a social
scientist—and it’s something that Senator Daines surely knows, too, as an
engineer: Correlation does not equal causation. Senator Daines makes a causal
claim when he asks us to look at the correlation between timber harvests and
forest fire intensity. But simple bivariate relationships are not evidence that
X generates Y; indeed, these simple associations are often misleading without
having undergone a rigorous statistical analysis. (For a bit of fun, check out
this website (<a href="http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations">LINK</a>)
devoted to correlations which are not causally related, such as the decline of
pirates and rising global temperatures or people falling and drowning in pools
and the release of Nicolas Cage movies). If I were to draw a causal conclusion
from these relationships, we should be able to fix global warming by issuing
more letters of marque or keeping Nicolas Cage away from the box office.
Clearly, that’s absurd! And it is just as absurd to make forest policy based
upon two trends moving together without a deeper analysis controlling for other
factors.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbd7pexWIzbcTvFVR0AkvRqd0GBU9iL5EI6svlRW8b_SFFOmzN-Dy0RHUgdliDo02OE9O0NOYLJ9KIVlPp3OXIv1RKM4z6jwGDafNYOcRfCdcMHZpJLtEbGJZgIkuhRtxpB4yPxYJyDPq8/s1600/Pirates.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="960" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbd7pexWIzbcTvFVR0AkvRqd0GBU9iL5EI6svlRW8b_SFFOmzN-Dy0RHUgdliDo02OE9O0NOYLJ9KIVlPp3OXIv1RKM4z6jwGDafNYOcRfCdcMHZpJLtEbGJZgIkuhRtxpB4yPxYJyDPq8/s320/Pirates.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Clearly, to address global warming, we need...Pirates!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Most troubling is that Senator Daines conspicuously
ignores two key factors in his opinion piece: climate and temperature.
According to fire ecologists and foresters, those are the key drivers of fire
intensity and growth—and forest management or lack thereof plays a much smaller
role (this </span><a href="http://mtpr.org/post/forest-ecologist-comments-senator-daines-fire-call"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">recent
example</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">). You would hardly know that, however, from reading
the Senator’s article. You also would
not know that fire is an essential part of a healthy Western forest which
requires its regenerative powers to remain in balance and even to allow certain
species to propagate (such as the ubiquitous lodge pole pine). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, an abundance of </span><a href="http://mtpr.org/post/forest-ecologist-comments-senator-daines-fire-call"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">science
clearly demonstrates that carbon emissions</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> by humans is a
critical factor responsible for climate change which is leading to hotter and
drier summers in the West. To reduce the likelihood of the West burning, we
should pursue policies that would reduce those emissions. Senator Daines claims
that thinning our forests would reduce the release of dangerous greenhouse
gases, but has refused to acknowledge in this piece and<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okFe5s_M3tE"> elsewhere that carbonemissions</a> from the burning of fossil fuels is responsible for precisely the
conditions most directly responsible for leaving our forests in cinders. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I could go on, as Dr. Diana Six of UM, a leading
expert on pine beetles</span><a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/03/bark-pine-beetles-climate-change-diana-six/"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,
has argued that thinning itself by pine beetles</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
helps our forests adapt to the new realities of a warming world and that
thinning by cuts might stymie an important natural process. Declining timber
yields in Montana have less to do with lawsuits and more to do with the free
market (lumber companies moving south where trees grow faster and wages are
lower) and unfair trade practices (government subsidies for timber in Canada)—here’s
an </span><a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr624.pdf"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">extensive
report on the issue published</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in 2005.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Bottom line: There are no silver bullets when it comes
to fire in the West, and we need our elected officials to start leading an
honest discussion instead of providing us with false hope and convenient scape
goats for a problem that is much larger and messier than Senator Daines
suggests.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-57710292277402096022017-08-13T19:46:00.002-06:002017-08-13T20:17:34.031-06:00Our Republic: We Better Start Keeping It. Fast.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m
a political scientist—with an emphasis on the science. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve viewed my role in the public sphere as inserting
into debates what political scientists have learned about political processes
and institutions—and to try to keep both sides faithful to the empirics. At
heart, I’ve always been a skeptic and my training as a political scientist
makes me even more so. I'm not one to join partisan frays. It's not my style. I just go where data lead.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The election of Donald Trump, someone who had zero political
experience, certainly sent my skepticism into high gear given the data. Limited
political experience does not often equate with political success. One major
exception is Dwight David Eisenhower, but he is the exception who proves the
rule. Eisenhower was an exceptional student of leadership and, as Supreme
Allied Commander in Europe, developed a well-honed ability to convince,
negotiate and compromise with many talented, egoistic generals as they fought
the Third Reich to rid the world of Nazism.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
During the fall campaign, a video of historian David
McCullough made the rounds on social media. I’ve long admired McCullough’s accessible
and well-written history, especially his biography of Truman.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/eimt7yz0ID8/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eimt7yz0ID8?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the video, McCullough draws our attention to Eisenhower’s
four qualities of leadership, noting that Trump exhibited none of those
qualities. He had neither character, ability, experience, nor responsibility. In
short, McCullough did not believe Trump was suited for the presidency. He
was especially not suited to articulating a clear moral purpose and acting as
the conciliator in chief in times of national sorrow and crisis.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trump’s repeated failure as a leader over the past eight
months should not surprise. He was as prepared for the presidency as I am to do any kind of home or car repair.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Yet the president can be a poor leader and the nation can survive:
We managed the ineptitude of Hoover and Carter. What is most troubling is that
Trump himself, through apparently carefully contrived acts, may be encouraging
values antithetical to the Republic itself.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That causes me great alarm and concern, as it should every
American regardless of party.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are certain moral certainties, bright lines in the
sand, that are not debated in civilized society. Racism, white supremacy, and support
for Nazism are among them. No race, no people, no ethnicity is superior to any
other. Advocating violence against someone else because they are different than
you is wrong. Killing innocent people is wrong. Full stop.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
An easy test of leadership, methinks, is denouncing
yesterday’s terrible events in Charlottesville with clarity and precision. “Nazism,
racism, and violence are acts of terrorism, and have no place in our Republic
and receive my strongest condemnation” would’ve been a good start. Perhaps you might have taken a cue from Vice President Pence, who had no problem naming who was the blame for yesterday's events: "We have no tolerance for hate and violence from white supremacists,
neo-Nazis or the KKK," said Pence, calling them "dangerous <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/13/politics/trump-silent-aides-charlottesville/index.html">fringe groups" today in Colombia.</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Instead, the President issued a statement that was ambiguous
at best, but spoke volumes: Calling out racism, Nazism, and white supremacy wasn’t
on the table. Best case? He’s a coward and inept. I'm less inclined to believe this is the case: He's spoken out clearly concerning acts of terrorism undertaken by Muslims in the past. And Trump certainly has no trouble telling us what he thinks most of the time. That leaves the worst case: He’s sympathetic
to their cause. <br />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many Americans voted for Trump because they were angry at
what they believe our country had become. Others voted for Trump simply because
he was the Republican nominee. Still others voted for him because they couldn’t
stomach Hillary Clinton. It is not for me to judge a person who voted for
Trump. That’s their business, and frankly, that’s water under the bridge </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We’ve seen Trump can’t stomach doing what’s right when the
path is clear, and may be conspiring with forces seeking to undermine the very
foundation of our Republic. It doesn’t matter how you voted, but how you answer
the question: “What now?”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If you are troubled with what you’ve seen, at least we have
a constitutional system with multiple points of access. Write to the president;
tell him how you feel (although I'm skeptical that would matter). Write to your congressional delegation: Remember,
ambition counters ambition in our system of separated (but shared) powers. Write
to your state parties and tell them to make changes to the primary system that
will make it more likely better candidates survive the nomination process
(ironically, that may mean a <a href="https://psmag.com/magazine/how-to-improve-the-primary-process">little less democracy in the primaries</a> and more
control to party elites who were overwhelmingly opposed to Trump). But do
something. Be heard, while you still can.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We have a democracy. That is, as Ben Franklin said, as long
as we can keep it. We’ve kept it for more than 200 years.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whether we keep it for another 200 depends on the choices
you make now.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Just in case you need a refresher course on leadership, here’s
how great leaders should behave:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Responsibility. Eisenhower, on the eve of D-Day,
prepared this statement should the landings fail:</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>“Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed
to gain a satisfactory foothold and I</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> have <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>withdrawn
the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based on the best <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>information available. The troops, the
air and the Navy did all that bravery and devotion to duty <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>could do. If any blame or fault attaches
to the attempt it is mine alone."</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Character. George W. Bush after 9-11.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/9_ZoroJdVnA/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9_ZoroJdVnA?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Ability and Experience. LBJ and the Voting
Rights Act.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/VbFmicUTb_k/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VbFmicUTb_k?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Fortitude. Ronald Reagan in Berlin at the
Brandenburg Gates.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ei1HnWwzmNk/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ei1HnWwzmNk?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>All of the Above. Churchill. 1940, as France
fell and Britain stood alone.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 20.25pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
Ask our members of Congress to display the leadership our President will not. </div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-51042225973760824322017-06-16T12:08:00.001-06:002017-06-16T12:20:38.164-06:00Legsilative Effectiveness and Influence: It's more than Passing Bills<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">How does one measure influence and the effectiveness of
legislators? This is not a trivial question, as voters have to make sense of
competing claims during election years when deciding whether to return an incumbent
for another two or six year term. Of course, incumbents seek to inflate their
importance and influence, while their opponents attempt the opposite. <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10399.html">Justin Grimmer</a> wrote a
fascinating account of how legislators attempt to puff up their credentials in
press releases, claiming credit for government spending and appropriations
which are routine--the legislator likely had little role in procuring. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I am drawn again to the topic of legislative
effectiveness and influence by a <a href="https://themontanapost.com/2017/06/16/the-media-covers-political-theater-from-senator-daines-while-senator-tester-works/">recent
post by Don Pogreba at his new website</a>, The Montana Post. Pogreba contrasts
the legislative accomplishments of Senator Tester with those of Senator Daines,
suggesting that Tester is far more accomplished than Daines—inferring that
Daines has little influence in Washington and does nothing of substance in the
U.S. Senate.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Unfortunately, I thought the piece trivializes an
important issue to sell a partisan point. Both parties are guilty of
simplifying this issue to create a narrative useful to them. Let’s elevate the
conversation, and see what political science can offer. Who is more effective:
Daines or Tester?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I addressed the issue of influence and effectiveness
in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Battle for the Big Sky</i>, as a key
argument Team Tester made about Congressman Rehberg was that he had
accomplished little of substance during his decade plus in the House of
Representatives. I wrote this in evaluating the effectiveness of Tester and
Rehberg as lawmakers:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>“<span style="color: black;">On average, House members passed less than one bill in the
109th through the 111th <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Congresses
that became law, according to data compiled by the Congressional Bills <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>Project. In the Senate, it isn’t much
better: Senators passed fewer than two bills on <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>average that were signed by the president over the same
period.<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 107%;">17 </span></span>Of
the 42 bills and <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>resolutions sponsored by
Tester during his first four years in office, two passed. Rehberg <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>passed seven of the 82 bills and
resolutions he introduced between 2001 and 2010.<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 107%;">18 </span></span>In <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>neither case do Rehberg nor Tester
stand out as successful legislators, but their efforts are <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>less reflective of their individual
abilities than they are of governing in an era of <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>polarization and divided government. Senior members of
both chambers tend to be more <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>successful
because they often have committee chairmanships that provide them with the <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>opportunity and responsibility to
advance legislation central to their party’s legislative <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>agendas.<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 107%;">”</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A couple of points are important.
First, it’s really hard to pass a bill. Second, it’s really hard for House
members to be effective in sponsoring bills—but it is “relatively” easier for
Senators to get their legislation made into law. Third, appropriators don’t
often sponsor bills and exert influence through earmarks instead. Finally,
seniority matters: Freshmen simply don’t pass bills they sponsor in either
chamber often. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Let’s compare apples to apples. In
2007, Senator Tester was a part of the new Democratic majority. According to
GovTrack, the same source Pogrebra uses to assess Senator Daines’ performance,
Senator Tester did not have a bill sponsored by him (not counting co-sponsored
bills) pass that year. In 2015, Senator Daines was also in his first year in
the Senate as part of a new Republican majority. And, no surprise, he did not
have a single bill sponsored by him become law. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But sponsoring bills is only one way
to think about legislative effectiveness. Indeed, it is a measure that is not
terribly useful when looking at freshmen legislators. I noted in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Battle for the Big Sky</i> that the Senate
gives far more opportunities for senators to participate directly in the
legislative process through floor amendments. This is the similar tactic that
my Georgia State colleague, Jeff Lazarus, employed to compare the legislative
effectiveness of Senators Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Read the piece <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/07/hillary-clinton-was-a-more-effective-lawmaker-than-bernie-sanders/?utm_term=.01da695caf6d">here</a>;
Lazarus concluded that Clinton was the far more effective legislator, owing in
part to the support she marshalled for her amendments.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Tester effectively used amendments to
advance his legislative priorities, particularly for a freshman Senator in the
majority. While he ranked second to last among his class in the passage of
sponsored bills (in the first four years of his first term), he was the second
most successful Senate amender among the cohort elected in 2006. Of the 38
amendments he sponsored, eleven were adopted on the floor. Again, this data is
from my book.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Senator Daines, in the 114<sup>th</sup>
Congress, sponsored 55 floor amendments (Data for this analysis was obtained
from Congress.gov). Only five were adopted by the chamber—for a success rate of
nine percent. How does that rank among Republican freshmen? </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Eleven Republican freshmen were elected
in 2014. Six had higher amendment passage rates than Daines, five had lower
success rates. Senators Rounds and Sullivan had 32 percent of their amendments
agreed to (about Tester’s success rate), but both sponsored fewer amendments
(19 and 41 respectively). At the bottom end of the scale, Oklahoma Senator
James Lankford sponsored 34 amendments and had only one receive Senate assent
(for a passage rate of 3 percent). Among freshmen, Daines also sponsored the
most amendments—eight more than Colorado Senator Corey Gardner (17 percent
success rate).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Legislative effectiveness is tricky
to measure and must be placed both in career and institutional context. Daines’
inability to pass legislation sponsored by him should not surprise given his
relative junior status—and Tester found himself in precisely the same boat when
he arrived in Washington. Looking at amendments, Daines is less effective than
Tester was early in his career. Tester’s experience as a successful legislator
in the Montana Senate has carried over to the U.S. Senate. Daines, whose
experience was in the private sector and not in politics prior to arriving on
Capitol Hill, likely has had a steep learning curve when it comes to legislative
maneuvering on the Senate floor.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A43"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">One final and related point:
political scientists have long argued that term limits are bad for
legislatures. As David Mayhew notes in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">America’s
Congress</i>, some of the country’s most important, historic legislative
measures were drafted and passed by members of Congress late in their careers.
As the above analysis and discussion demonstrates, passing laws is the business
of seasoned legislators and not those new to Capitol Hill. It is also not a
particularly useful way to measure whether a legislator is effective or not
earlier in their careers—especially not in isolation. There are also other ways
to think about legislative effectiveness, including casework and pork brought
back home. Both of these are hard to measure, and in the case of pork, ever
more difficult to obtain given the recent ban on earmarks. Legislative
effectiveness is multi-faceted and needs to be placed into comparative
contexts.</span></span></div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-64094420894557310422017-02-10T10:41:00.003-07:002017-02-10T10:41:42.719-07:00Daines was Right to Shut Down Warren<div class="MsoNormal">
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren rose Tuesday night to
register her objections to Senator Jeff Sessions’ nomination to the Attorney
Generalship. In the course of reading a letter from the late Coretta Scott King
(widow of Martin Luther King) about her objection to his appointment in 1986 to
the federal bench, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell issued an objection saying
that Senator Warren had violated Rule 19. That rule states, in part:
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“No
Senator in debate shall, directly or indirectly, by any form of words impute to
another Senator or to other Senators any conduct or motive unworthy or
unbecoming a Senator.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Senator Daines ruled Senator Warren out of order, telling her
to take her seat. Warren challenged that ruling, but Senator Daines was
sustained on 49-43 party-line vote. Senator Warren was then effectively barred
from the remainder of the debate.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlwZ3viAQp8rQ6OSEpQ4uwWbygHF3q3QQe8eihgIF45W5cHDre8aI-InShrGbjVL1di7EMNBSCmdujD0pV00cyIs2T1Aj5iC8-BqV7GDvZwNGnzlvzglxSj3FnRT-92unvlYCNGU9ToXuN/s1600/daines_presiding.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlwZ3viAQp8rQ6OSEpQ4uwWbygHF3q3QQe8eihgIF45W5cHDre8aI-InShrGbjVL1di7EMNBSCmdujD0pV00cyIs2T1Aj5iC8-BqV7GDvZwNGnzlvzglxSj3FnRT-92unvlYCNGU9ToXuN/s1600/daines_presiding.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Senator Daines ruling Senator Warren out of order</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYAHqxf-ILw">video of the incident</a> quickly spread across social
media. Democrats, liberals, and regular women were furious at a white, male senator
suppressing the free speech of a female colleague. Even more galling, they
indicated, was that Warren’s male, Democratic colleagues were later allowed to
read King’s letter from the floor without interruption, let alone official
reprimand. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As a professor of political science, I appreciate Senator
Daines’ commitment to civil discourse. It is something that I try to model for
my students at Montana State, and it’s a value which has evaporated during
these hyper-polarized times. I agree that Senator Daines’ interpretation of Rule
19 falls within the letter of the rule. Senator Warren did charge Senator
Sessions with conduct unbecoming of a Senator, even if Senator Warren was
quoting someone else.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Daines was right. According to the letter of Rule 19, that
is.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But it’s the spirit of the rule—and the intention behind it—that
matters. And in that respect, Senator Daines and Senate Republicans erred
greatly in ordering the honorable member from Massachusetts to take her seat.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Consider first why something like rule 19 exists: To provide
a “safe space” for the difficult and often contentious disagreements about
policy and the direction of our nation. Political debates should confine
themselves to substantive matters without devolving into attacks on personal
character. As we know from the literature on international relations, repeated
interactions in negotiations encourages cooperation and long-term thinking. By
encouraging elevated discussions whilst removing name-calling, the Senate
pushes its members to engage in a battle of ideas and not personalities (Side
note: Refusing to engage in personalities was one of President Eisenhower’s
keys to successful leadership). At the same time, this encourages the
development of relationships that go beyond the disagreements of the moment—relationships
essential to the institution functioning well and the production of good policy.
In this case, Rule 19 is a good thing to have handy for officers presiding over
debate.</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">While Rule 19
encourages elevated discourse, its use on Tuesday evening conflicted with the
constitutional responsibility of the Senate; that is, to provide its advice and
consent in the nomination process.</b></div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It would seem that a rule of the chamber
concerning decorum should be subordinate to the pursuit of an important
constitutional check on the executive branch. </div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
When Senator Sessions became President Trump’s nominee to
head the Justice Department, he was no longer <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">just</i> a Senator. He had become a potential member of the executive
branch and therefore subject to the advice and consent process. It would seem,
then, that a full consideration of the previous actions and record of that
nominee—including the judgment of those who are in a good position to assess
that record—is fair game for consideration during the process of advice and
consent. Even if those allegations include remarks that might be perceived as
impugning the character of a sitting U.S. Senator.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Beyond this technical point, however, it’s hard to buy that
Senator Warren’s reading of the King letter impugned the character of Senator
Sessions. First, the letter was an account of his behavior not as a U.S.
Senator but in his position as a U.S. Attorney. And, perhaps more directly, the
views expressed by Mrs. King assessed the actions of an officer of the
executive branch—the same branch Sessions would serve as head of the Justice
Department.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Even if we accept the notion that Senator Warren’s reading
of the letter was out of line under a strict application of Rule 19, consider if
that same letter were written about Betsy DeVos. Senator Warren could have
freely read the letter without fear of rebuke. DeVos was not a sitting senator
at the time of her confirmation, therefore, Rule 19 simply does not apply. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 1989, the former U.S. Senator John Tower’s nomination to
lead the Department of Defense was rejected after senators openly discussed
documented allegations of womanizing and alcohol abuse. Although Tower was not
an active member of the Senate at the time of his nomination by President
George H.W. Bush, the Senate did not shy away from this important and difficult
discussion about a former colleague. It defies reason, therefore, that the
Senate chose to silence one of its members rather than have a complete and full
discussion of Sessions’ qualifications to serve as Attorney General—simply
because he is an active U.S. Senator.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is, quite simply, a dereliction of its constitutional duty.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the end of the day, it is not a surprise that Senator
Daines upheld McConnell’s objection and the Republican majority supported his
ruling. As University of Maryland Professor Frances Lee documents, senators
increasingly vote along party lines not just on issues of policy and ideology,
but on routine procedural matters. Why? Because the parties are more interested
in building a mentality of teamsmanship at the expense of cross-partisan
collegiality and cooperation. </div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">While that
teamsmanship might yield electoral benefits in the short-term, it comes at
great expense to Madison’s carefully constructed system of checks and balances.</b></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The rise of teamsmanship along with the weaponization of congressional oversight (which Matt Dull and I have documented a few articles), leaves Congress vulnerable to the continued expansion of the executive branch accruing more and more power. Without congressional ambition vigorously countering executive ambition, we
risk the rise of a majority tyranny running roughshod over our individual
liberties.</div>
</div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-24810200267082628282016-09-12T21:49:00.000-06:002016-09-12T21:59:31.378-06:00Jesse Laslovich is not a socialist...and I can't believe I have to write this blog<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
I guess I should be used to folks taking the work that I do
out of context. It comes with the territory when you are a scholar engaged in
the public realm. Normally, I shrug it off because both sides can be guilty of
it. But I take particular exception when the work I do to help inform the
public and to elevate the public discourse gets twisted beyond all recognition
to score cheap political points that bear no relation to the facts.<br />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Back in the spring, MTN agreed to move Face the State to a
weekly format through the election. I thought it would be wonderful to use this opportunity to hold
debates on the show for the statewide offices receiving less attention:
Auditor, Secretary of State, OPI, Attorney General, and Supreme Court. I
reached out to all the major party candidates offering the opportunity to
debate. Nearly everyone was excited for the opportunity to share their
candidacies with Montana on statewide television.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In late August, Mike Dennison and I taped a Face the State segment
with Jesse Laslovich, the Democratic candidate for state auditor. You can watch
it <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNkG3M5OUeY">here</a>. That segment was supposed to be a debate. We had invited Matt
Rosendale, the Republican candidate, to join us. He chose not to attend or
offer other dates/times that would work with his schedule, which disappointed us. Laslovich was one of
the first candidates to agree to debate back in June. Given Mr. Rosendale’s
decision not to debate, we gave Mr. Laslovich the whole half hour to share his
vision for the state auditorship with Montanans.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Today, the Montana Republican Party sent out a press release
calling Laslovich a “socialist” (I actually laughed out loud when I read this) and, using a clip from our interview on Face
the State, intimated that he supports single-payer healthcare as “evidence” of
their claim. Mr. Rosendale sent out a tweet with that same clip saying Mr.
Laslovich supports more big government to destroy healthcare.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
First, Mr. Laslovich did NOT say he supported replacing the
Affordable Care Act with a single-payer option. He said our existing healthcare
system was still broken despite the positive gains made by the Affordable Care Act,
and that the single-payer idea should be taken seriously in any future
discussions of healthcare reform. That’s it. He did not say he supported
single-payer. He did not advocate for it. He simply said a candid discussion
was necessary. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, and this is perhaps the most distressing, single-payer
healthcare already exists in the United States and has received support from
the Republican Party. It’s called Medicare—you know, that single payer plan
providing healthcare for elderly Americans. If single-payer programs are
socialist, then any Republican supporting Medicare must be a socialist, too. At
least, if we are to simply employ the “logic” expressed in the Montana
Republican Party’s press release.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Montanans deserve a fair and vigorous debate between their
parties, both of which have different ideas for moving our state forward. That
means candidates should debate one another, their views should be publicly scrutinized,
and the conversation should be based upon facts rather than distortions. The
Republican Party’s characterization of our interview with Mr. Laslovich is
simply unfair and mischaracterizes Mr. Laslovich's position. They should issue an immediate retraction and apologize. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-22193227530211311832016-06-19T07:23:00.000-06:002016-06-19T07:23:05.983-06:00A Father's Day Reflection on the Politics of Fear<div class="MsoNormal">
I have been watching politics unfold for a long time—first
as a young idealist hopeful to make the world a better place, later as a
student of history interested in understanding the stories of our past, and now
as a scholar and analyst helping others to understand the process and its
intricacies. But today I write as a father concerned for the future of our
political discourse. I’m specifically concerned when I see certain American
politicians turn to fearmongering as a way to manipulate the electorate.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Politics has never been for the faint of heart, and very
often, civil discourse can get drowned out by those who choose to be nastier
than perhaps is necessary or over-simplistic in their rhetoric. And yet, this
year—this time—is different. The tone is nastier, more simplistic, and more
willing to disregard basic facts than at any time I have seen. It is a politics
based upon raw emotion, rather than dispassionate analysis.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy9NjLmjEUO2R2_dw_EWuIuCqTMDNJnM2KdCr8ju8iD2LbOV4m8JI-V46N1gq1ufJivrU7nqDntUW86hbRRPBuEtBoJN-dg9bpEwKPdizXa-V852CT7wbpHWW1jUn1vpNzuStpHb3e0bzc/s1600/McCarthy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy9NjLmjEUO2R2_dw_EWuIuCqTMDNJnM2KdCr8ju8iD2LbOV4m8JI-V46N1gq1ufJivrU7nqDntUW86hbRRPBuEtBoJN-dg9bpEwKPdizXa-V852CT7wbpHWW1jUn1vpNzuStpHb3e0bzc/s320/McCarthy.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During this political season, I have seen candidates both nationally
and here in Montana resort to the divisive language of “us” versus “them,”
pretending that they are leaders for “telling it like it is.” These candidates
purport to say what regular politicians refuse to voice, and because of that,
they argue, we should lend them our support. They are not corruptible, they
claim, because they are “one of us” and not “one of them.” They come from
outside the contemptible, “broken” political system. They can make America, and
Montana, great again because only they have the will to do the tough things the
venal politicians in the pocket of special interests refuse to stomach.</div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These candidates aren’t tough and principled. They are
master manipulators asking us to give in to our basest fears. They are
unscrupulous charlatans selling us bill of goods. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That’s not leadership. It calls to mind the Red Panic
following World War I, or the McCarthyism of the 1950s. Have we lost all
decency?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Leaders don’t play on people’s fears. They acknowledge our
fears, but inspire us to overcome them. They ask us to move beyond fear and bind
us together. They do not push us apart. Leaders, like all of us, are not
perfect. They make mistakes. But they fundamentally strive to bring out the
best in us as a people, together.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Make no mistake: Political disputes are healthy and good in
a republic. We should disagree and do so vigorously. The problem is when that
discourse becomes poisoned by a desire to win a political argument at all
costs. This mentality encourages doubling down on fear to marshal our darkest
doubts against our perceived enemies. It fosters and deepens divisions between
us. It is especially dangerous when that fear encourages a majority “us” versus
a minority “them”—stoked by too cute by half political framing that skews facts
to make a convenient argument.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All is not yet lost. We—the people—are at a time of
choosing, Ronald Reagan once said. We can chose candidates that manipulate our
fears to advance their campaign, or we can chose candidates who wish to
overcome them. We can chose hucksters who have no fidelity to truth or civil
discourse. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Or we can choose leaders.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
May Americans be inspired to act together this election
season “by the better angels of our nature” rather than give into our fear. If
we choose to surrender to the “nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which
paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance,” then not only is our
republic imperiled, but we really have lost our collective national soul.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">May we choose wisely. </span><!--EndFragment-->David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-25927845338660411832016-06-08T16:03:00.000-06:002016-06-08T16:03:13.250-06:00Why Did Terry Nelson's performance last night made me curious?On Election Night, both Mike Dennison and I were struck by the vote totals obtained by Terry Nelson, who was running for the Republican nomination for Governor, and Eric Mills, who was running for the nonpartisan Supreme Court. Nelson obtained 24 percent of the vote, and Mills received 20 percent of the vote. Neither ran a campaign of any note, nor did they spend any money. Nelson had raised $1,300 but spent none of it. Mills had $300. Why did they do so well without spending any money? It was curious. <br />
<br />
I said as much on air, and sent out a tweet about the Republican primary vote totals earlier today. Former standout student Kendall Cotton suggested it wasn't odd--about 25 percent of primary voters go to the second candidate since 1996. He suggested it was par for the course--there's not much to see here. Move along.<br />
<br />
Then why did Governor Bullock manage to get 92 percent of the vote and his opponent only 8 percent? I actually expected there would be more of a Democratic protest vote given that he is on his third Lt. Governor and the persistent attacks in paid media over the Governor's use of his plane. So it seemed odder still that Greg Gianforte, who I presumed had pretty much universal Republican support, would have done better than 75 percent. Especially given the fact that his opponent spent nothing.<br />
<br />
Kendall's explanation sounded interesting. But then I looked at campaign finance expenditures from Follow The Money. Take a peak:<br />
<br />
1996. Natelson received 23 percent of the vote in 1996 Republican primary. He spent $125,000.<br />
2000. Natelson received 43 percent of the vote in the 2000 Republican primary. He spent $219,000.<br />
2004. John Vincent received 27 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary. He spent $48,000.<br />
2008. Larry Steele spent $2,073 in the Republican primary and got 19 percent of the vote.<br />
<br />
Only Steele fits the pattern of almost no money spent and a vote share north of 10 or 15 percent. Otherwise, all the candidates spent some money--and many had some name recognition from their involvement in politics.<br />
<br />
So, we have an observation: Terry Nelson spends no money. Hardly campaigns. And gets 24 percent of the vote while Greg Gianforte spends a considerable sum and gets 75 percent of the vote. We might conclude that:<br />
<br />
1. Republicans are ornery and about a quarter just vote against the presumed nominee because they don't like presumed nominees (then why, pray, are Democrats less ornery this year?)<br />
<br />
2. Some Republicans are not satisfied with Greg Gianforte as their major party nominee.<br />
<br />
3. Something else is going on. Perhaps Democrats are crossing over (but really? With the Sanders-Clinton race)?<br />
<br />
Does this mean Greg Gianforte will have trouble winning in the fall? It depends on whether 1, 2, or 3 are operative in this instance. He might go on to victory against Steve Bullock with a unified Republican Party. Or, he might have some lingering trouble with his base--a la Congressman Rehberg in 2012, when candidate Teske (spending about $20,000) received a similar share of the vote. And the Congressman did have some trouble with the base--as some Republicans (as detailed in Battle for the Big Sky) abandoned him for Libertarian Dan Cox and others for incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.<br />
<br />
I lead you to draw your own conclusions.<br />
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-40390126188612168682016-04-26T13:08:00.002-06:002016-04-26T13:09:58.995-06:00The True Costs of Denying Public Access: Worse Health Outcomes for the Poor?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Vox had an interesting piece today examining the
relationship between income and age expectancy. You can read it <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/4/25/11501370/health-longevity-inequality-life-expectancy">here</a>. As one
might expect, they report that growing income inequality is related to a
growing gap in age expectancy. But there’s another factor seemingly related to how
long one lives: Where one lives. Here’s a brief snippet explaining the
importance of geography and longevity:</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
To Chetty's surprise, the strongest
pattern in the data was the role geography played: Low-income individuals lived
the longest (and had more healthy behaviors) in cities like New York and San
Francisco with populations that are, on average, well educated, and
high-income.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What leapt out at me, however, was not the connection
between urbanity and life expectancy for the poor. Another geographic pattern
became apparent as I scanned two charts reporting the life expectancy gap by income in each state: Access to public land. Here are both charts as reported by Vox. The one on the left looks at men; the second, on the right, at women. Click on them to enlarge.</div>
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Look at the states clustered at the top: many have
substantial public land holdings. Montana is number one for men, and 10th for women. Like a good social scientist, I combined the
data in the two charts and added a percentage of total public land ownership
variable to the mix. I calculated the longevity gaps between the richest 25
percent and the poorest 25 percent of men and women. Finally, I ran a quick
correlation between the gaps and the public land variable. The resulting
correlation statistic is simply a measure of how well the two measures move
together and in which direction. Here’s a screen shot of the results:</div>
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The correlation is negative and statistically significant
for men and women, suggesting that the more public land in a state, the lower
the longevity gap between the richest and poorest quartiles regardless of
gender. Further investigation uncovered that the gap between the poorest 25
percent and the second poorest 25 percent also decreases significantly with
greater percentages of public land, but the correlation is less strong (-.30
and -.33 for men and women, respectively, versus the -.47 and -.43 reported
above).
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It’s hard to make too much of this relationship, as I have
not controlled for a whole host of other demographic and behavioral factors
that explain health outcomes. Until I’ve done that, it’s hard to see how strong
the effect of public land access is on public health outcomes and whether it withstands controlling for these other factors. Correlation is
not causation. People who value public land access are very likely different in
many respects from those who do not. Certainly, people who move away from a
place without much public land in favor of a place with lots of public space
are probably going to have different habits and leisure activities than those
who stay put. And places with public land are also quite different from places without. Without examining all of these factors, the relationship between
life expectancy and public land access is not completely clear.</div>
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With those caveats made, an important finding mentioned in the
VOX article is the association between poverty and two key factors associated
with lower life expectancy: obesity and sedentariness. Clearly, greater access
to the great outdoors would help combat both—and this access may be even more
important for the poorest among us to increase their life expectancy. Providing
and protecting access to public land might be one of the best ways to mitigate one
the most dire consequences of rising income inequality.</div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-67838766459745091742016-01-28T12:03:00.001-07:002016-01-28T14:37:47.229-07:00Montana 49th in Wages? Not Exactly.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This Sunday, you’ll get to watch Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte face off with me and Mike Dennison in the MTN
studios on Face the State. I'll post a link once it has been uploaded. This is the first time I’ve interacted with Mr. Gianforte extensively,
and I thoroughly enjoyed our conversation. It should be an exciting race.</span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9dK6PZ4yfehWhdlpEpiDLswNuwF2BMe8bKaNzR0NvAcUD-K9WxDozMzKHLLyn7XWEF1GcLWIBAH5KSXo-T-UQpBytXd_BHT6-DEoEgv6D6pMkPJF6Mc8NJ_Vqwv_-7O2Oyozl1oLtaXcY/s1600/greg-bloomberg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9dK6PZ4yfehWhdlpEpiDLswNuwF2BMe8bKaNzR0NvAcUD-K9WxDozMzKHLLyn7XWEF1GcLWIBAH5KSXo-T-UQpBytXd_BHT6-DEoEgv6D6pMkPJF6Mc8NJ_Vqwv_-7O2Oyozl1oLtaXcY/s320/greg-bloomberg.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Greg Gianforte: Founder of RightNow Technologies and Republican candidate for Governor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">During the show, you’ll hear me express skepticism
about Mr. Gianforte’s claim that Montana is 49<sup>th</sup> in wages. I wanted
to provide some context for that discussion, and explain why I don’t think this
number is a particularly good measure of Montana’s overall economic health--and how I think it undercuts the argument being made by Mr. Gianforte.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As a political scientist, I like quantitative data. At
the same time, when we use quantitative data, it is important to know how the
data are calculated and the potential ways in which that calculation can
introduce bias into our measures. It is true that Montana is not as
economically well-off as other states. But are we really only better than
Mississippi? I found that hard to believe. Here are three other measures of the
economy and how Montana ranks:</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">U.S. Census</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Per Capita Household Income (2014): 38<sup>th </sup></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Per Capita Income (2014): 34<sup>th</sup></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Bureau
of Labor Statistics </span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Unemployment (November 2015): Tied for 12<sup>th</sup>
(with Kansas)</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Not first or even in the top half for per capita or
household income, but not nearly rock bottom as the 49<sup>th</sup> in wages number
suggests. And the unemployment picture is stellar. So what gives? Do we really
have such low pay?<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Back in April, many Montana media outlets reported
that according to tax data compiled by <a href="http://trac.syr.edu/phptools/tracirs/taxes/">Transactional Records Access
Clearinghouse</a> (TRAC), Montana was 49<sup>th</sup> in wages. No one took any
time, however, to actually do a deep dig into that number. Once I heard
Gianforte using the number repeatedly during his statewide announcement tour, I
decided to do exactly that. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I clicked on the methodology portion of the website,
reading carefully about how the wage number is calculated. TRAC took the aggregate
total of wage and salary-based income as reported on individual tax returns and
divided that number by the number of tax returns received from the state. That
led to the determination that at $33,180, Montana is 49<sup>th</sup> in average
wages—just above Mississippi.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But there are two problems with this method. First,
consider that some people derive no income from wages in a tax year. Some of
these people are retired, some are students, and others live off of capital
gains or other sources of passive income. Yet, these folks need to file a tax
return—but are included in the data to compute the wage average despite having
zero wages. This will serve to drag down the average wages. You might argue
that this is the case in every state—and that’s true. But, if a state skews
older (which Montana does) or has a high number of retirees receiving income
from passive investments (see Big Sky, for example), then this biases the wage
average downward. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(In fact, Florida, New Mexico, West Virginia, South
Dakota, Arkansas, and Maine are all at the bottom 11 and they are some of the
oldest states in the US) </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Second, consider the nature of Montana’s economy. In
2015, we ranked number 1 (and, indeed, have been number 1 for quite some time)
in the <a href="http://www.kauffman.org/microsites/kauffman-index/rankings/state">Kauffman
Index of Startups</a>. Put simply, we are a state full of small businesses and
sole proprietorships—with people eager and willing to take risks. Many farmers,
ranchers, telecommuters, tax accountants, consultants, plumbers, tradespeople and
the like do not report W2 wage income either. I know this because for many
years my wife was a consultant and she had no W2 income. Instead, all of her
income was reported as business income—a separate line of a 1040 form. That
means that many Montanans, who had good jobs, also report zero on the W2 line
of their 1040s. And, that means they drag down the state’s wage average, too. Again,
this is a double hit. Their income is included as zero AND they their tax
return is included in the denominator for the overall wage average.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I argue this number very poorly reflects on the state
of Montana’s job picture and <span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">I am skeptical of its use</span>. There is no doubt
in my mind that Montana can have a stronger economy and there’s a path for an
even better future for our state. That’s a debate we need to have in this
Governor’s race. But it is important, while having a conversation about that
future, that we use the best numbers to decide what policies we need to pursue
to keep Montana the Last (but not 49<sup>th</sup>), Best Place.</span></div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-723747621564478432015-10-20T20:07:00.004-06:002015-10-21T09:12:45.412-06:00Speaker Zinke Redux: Still Too Liberal?This evening, Congressman Paul Ryan announced his willingness to serve as Speaker if House Republicans agree to unite behind him. As Congressman Ryan Zinke has already indicated he would support Ryan if he were to run for the Speakership, it would appear that Zinke's Speakership bid (such as it was) appears to be over. Unless, of course, the House Freedom Caucus still thinks Congressman Ryan is too liberal.<br />
<br />
I wrote last week that Congressman Zinke appeared to be too liberal to obtain enough support from the House Republican Caucus. Using a common measure of ideology employed by political scientists, I demonstrated that the Congressman was to the left of both the House Freedom Caucus and the House Republican mean. In fact, among the many names bandied about for the Speakership, Congressman Zinke was the second most liberal.<br />
<br />
The Congressman's spokesperson, Heather Swift, took to Twitter to dispute my claim. She pointed me to GovTrack's measure of ideology. Swift pointed out that it was important to not only consider votes taken on the House floor (which is the basis of the NOMINATE score), but legislation that is sponsored and co-sponsored but which has not (and very well will not) receive space on the House agenda, therefore, will not receive a formal roll call vote.<br />
<br />
Swift is not entirely wrong on this point. In fact, as I argue in <i>Battle for the Big Sky</i>, bill sponsorship is a better measure of true preferences because of the substantial resources required to submit and advocate for a piece of legislation. I don't entirely buy the argument that co-sponsorships is a good indicator of real ideological preferences, however, because a co-sponsorship could represent a member's true, revealed preferences or it might simply represent "cheap" talk--an attempt to look more left or right than one actually is.<br />
<br />
In any case, I was happy to investigate the data that Swift pointed me to in order to see if I had missed something or had misrepresented the Congressman ideologically. I went to GovTrack, read their account of their ideology measure based upon bill sponsorships and co-sponsorships, and downloaded it. The folks at GovTrack note that their measure of ideology, while based on different information than Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal's NOMINATE scores, correlated well with those scores. You can read about the methodology <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/about/analysis">here</a> and grab the scores yourself.<br />
<br />
The first thing I did was merge the NOMINATE data with the GovTrack Ideology measure and ran a simple correlation in Stata. Sure enough, the measures correlated robustly at .90. In other words, the measure of ideology based on roll calls was very similar to the measure of ideology based upon co-sponsorship patterns. In the political science business, this is what we call a high degree of face validity.<br />
<br />
Next I simply ran a quick scatterplot of the NOMINATE and ideology scores for each member of the 114th Congress. Again, visually the data show that the two appear to measure the same thing. The upper right corner represents the Republicans while the lower left represents the Democrats. Here's that plot with the X-axis the Poole-Rosenthal NOMINATE and the Y-axis the GovTrack Ideology measure.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_NNlbatwRc6QW5v-I8Sg8PmuRiECAh31OqoeFi9bVZPDEsOao0y5qBpEOO9IZsD8d9xjihOoN2CtnGNe2e7Zd1Xt3b-yoEB-boFvJrRnrqJJa-Dy4NgA3rW13-A7My9ZxvS-Phnz2SP2D/s1600/NOM_GOVTRACK_SCATTER.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_NNlbatwRc6QW5v-I8Sg8PmuRiECAh31OqoeFi9bVZPDEsOao0y5qBpEOO9IZsD8d9xjihOoN2CtnGNe2e7Zd1Xt3b-yoEB-boFvJrRnrqJJa-Dy4NgA3rW13-A7My9ZxvS-Phnz2SP2D/s400/NOM_GOVTRACK_SCATTER.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The next two graphs separate out the seventeen Republican speaker candidates mentioned in the news. The first chart replicates the scatterplot above, while the second simply graphs the speaker candidates from left to right using the GovTrack ideology score alone. In both charts, I add the mean value of the House Republican caucus, the mean value of the House Freedom Caucus, and the value for one standard deviation above and below the mean.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikCQUsTYSZpk75AmY6bGhCpKnnkQGIZAo9Jm779XipFAwjkJEP6etu0uLDHJVNnIk229rkmAaVe7Mr0vIcWtAN1LcFqNv-yjQGT9n3XjTJcbxxofb9KcRkb_P1x1bn35lA_7EJeJ3C_WHw/s1600/Zinke_NOM_Ideol_Scatter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikCQUsTYSZpk75AmY6bGhCpKnnkQGIZAo9Jm779XipFAwjkJEP6etu0uLDHJVNnIk229rkmAaVe7Mr0vIcWtAN1LcFqNv-yjQGT9n3XjTJcbxxofb9KcRkb_P1x1bn35lA_7EJeJ3C_WHw/s400/Zinke_NOM_Ideol_Scatter.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9F2lmYgUV-xZj3qMWiImsJv1pTl4WahlzaymBF8AQgKJEbGcluAs-W8GOb9mrmNctwptp-znk19zvrvu6vOB2Cn_J2ZVPZS5d8vI_W34oTiCqoYvaAaw50eHSPzxlOTyn6qTGcFrBMa77/s1600/gov_track_ideology.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9F2lmYgUV-xZj3qMWiImsJv1pTl4WahlzaymBF8AQgKJEbGcluAs-W8GOb9mrmNctwptp-znk19zvrvu6vOB2Cn_J2ZVPZS5d8vI_W34oTiCqoYvaAaw50eHSPzxlOTyn6qTGcFrBMa77/s400/gov_track_ideology.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
What do I find?<br />
<br />
Essentially the same story I found when looking at the NOMINATE data alone. Congressman Zinke is now the fourth most liberal among those mentioned as Speaker candidates when looking at the GovTrack ideology measure. NOMINATE had him at second most liberal. He's still to the left of the Republican House Caucus mean. And he's still considerably to the left of the House Freedom Caucus. Using these data, Paul Ryan, Ryan Zinke, and Darrell Issa are all essentially the same ideologically--and all are to the left of the House Republican Caucus.<br />
<br />
The take away point? Congressman Zinke, whether using roll call votes or co-sponsorship patterns, is on the left ideologically among his House Republican colleagues. In fact, there are 62 other members who are closer--using the GovTrack ideology measure--to the House Republican mean.<br />
<br />
And, again, if Congressman Ryan is too liberal to be Speaker according to the House Freedom Caucus, than isn't Congressman Zinke? #data<br />
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-52917936496212769322015-10-15T09:00:00.002-06:002015-10-15T09:43:52.268-06:00Congressman Ryan Zinke: Too Liberal to be Speaker?Montana's lone Congressman, Ryan Zinke, has recently been floated as a possible candidate for House Speaker. Apparently, the Congressman is taking the possibility of a campaign for the Speakership seriously and may throw<a href="http://www.kxlh.com/story/30263457/mts-rep-zinke-considers-running-for-speaker-of-us-house"> his hat in the ring</a>.<br />
<br />
Zinke's leadership as Navy Seal propelled him to victory in 2014, and he--and others--think his leadership skills are exactly what are needed to right the Republican House Caucus.<br />
<br />
I think this idea is crazy for lots of reasons, and I've gone on the record as to why I don't think it's a good idea or feasible (<a href="http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ryan-zinke-wants-to-be-speaker-of-the-house/article_a836aaf9-6262-5a66-8b7a-8b796d866a3e.html">here </a>and <a href="http://mtpr.org/post/expert-rep-zinke-longshot-speaker">here</a>). But to be clear: Zinke's leadership skills are not the problem.<br />
<br />
One item I did not mention in my interviews is the Congressman's ideology relative to this peers in the House Republican caucus because I had not reviewed the data. Now that I have, I can say with some confidence, that the Congressman's ideology would present a serious problem in any Speakership bid. And, contrary to a recent press release from the Montana Democratic Party, it's not because Congressman Zinke is a "Tea Party sympathizer." Instead, Congressman Zinke might be <b>too liberal </b>to be Speaker of the House.<br />
<br />
On this blog, I have long referenced the DW-NOMINATE scores produced by political scientists Keith Poole and his colleagues over at voteview.com. Using roll call votes cast, Poole and his fellow number crunchers develop a measure of ideology arrayed along a left-right dimension that plots each member of the Senate and House from most liberal to most conservative, roughly constrained at -1 for the most liberal member and +1 for the most conservative. In the past, these data have only been available after a congress has concluded. Now, however, they have developed a measure of ideology which they update weekly once roll call votes have been concluded.<br />
<br />
I downloaded these weekly DW-Common Space scores earlier this week (available <a href="http://www.voteview.com/Weekly_Constant_Space_DW-NOMINATE_Scores.htm">here</a>), stripped out the Senate, and then calculated the mean ideology score for the House Republicans and then the House Freedom Caucus (using wikipedia's membership list to determine who was in the caucus). I then plotted those values along with the ideology scores of every conceivable speaker candidate from least conservative to most conservative. The results are reported below. Click on the chart for the best view.<br />
<br />
<h2>
<b>Table: Ideology of House Speaker Candidates in the 114th Congress</b></h2>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUSAc2H2lQo3yocsOGJgb0FplvPumVB-8M4DSEkV_QU38XifOFX500oUwZB64cnjkbcBVvOr_fcHyvtMLAcCZd1UljY_6TLDnhqmQA8W2GFEQp1NCkFhTK3GupBb2-TmMHi7KvIpw6CPxq/s1600/Zinke_Speaker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUSAc2H2lQo3yocsOGJgb0FplvPumVB-8M4DSEkV_QU38XifOFX500oUwZB64cnjkbcBVvOr_fcHyvtMLAcCZd1UljY_6TLDnhqmQA8W2GFEQp1NCkFhTK3GupBb2-TmMHi7KvIpw6CPxq/s640/Zinke_Speaker.jpg" title="Ideology of Candidates for Speaker of the House" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
As is plain to the reader, Congressman Zinke is well to the left of the House Freedom Caucus, slight to the left of the average Republican member, and--among all the possible Speaker candidates mentioned--the second most liberal to Congressman Greg Walden, the NRCC chair from Oregon. He is more liberal than Congressman McCarthy, who withdrew from the speakership race. And, he is certainly more liberal than Congressman Ryan, who, according to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/us/politics/latest-unease-on-right-ryan-is-too-far-left.html"><i>The New York Times</i></a>, is possibly too liberal for some members of the very conservative House Freedom Caucus.<br />
<br />
Congressman Zinke will not be Speaker of the House. He's simply too liberal for House Republicans.David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-9521075194344451342015-08-17T09:22:00.001-06:002015-08-17T09:40:45.579-06:00Hate Forest Fires in Montana? Then Let's Overcome Cognitive Dissonance and Address Root Causes<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Summer is my favorite time of year in the Gallatin valley, perhaps because it is so fleeting (which makes it ever-so precious). I hike, bike, and run about town in the wonderful sunlight, surrounded by blue skies and hot, dry heat. Of course, this weekend, my beloved Bozeman has been choked with smoke from a wildfire out in Three Forks. One of the costs of living in Montana, and the West more generally, is the fire season which is so essential to life and renewal here. Of course, that fire season has been getting worse and longer, which makes it harder on me when I exercise outside due to my asthma, a condition I've learned to manage throughout my life. <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Over the weekend, I had time to reflect on forest fires and how sound public policy might help bring them under some control. I revisited Senator Daines’ recent <a href="http://billingsgazette.com/news/opinion/guest/guest-opinion-forest-reform-needed-to-protect-montana-communities/article_142b32bc-4d3f-5e86-a171-b8fb5acede81.html">op-ed
in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Billings Gazette</i></a>
discussing wildfire and forest reform, which I read with interest. First, Daines hits the nail on the head concerning a critical
challenge facing the US Forest Service and other federal agencies responsible
for managing healthy forests: money. The US Forest Service’s budget is burdened
with ever-increasing fire-fighting costs, which drain its ability to spend on
other important activities such as trail, campground, and facility maintenance.
Daines’ solution to this problem is his Wildfire Disaster Funding Act “which
ensures large forest fires are treated and funded as the true natural disasters
they are, similar to hurricanes or tornadoes.” I hope the bill—which Daines is
co-sponsoring along with Senator Tester—finds a solid reception among critical
allies of both parties, particularly those senators representing East Coast
states hard hit by Hurricane Sandy. (Montanans also should hope that they don’t
hold then-Congressman Steve Daines’ very first roll calls against him, given
that <a href="http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2013/roll007.xml">he voted against a
bill funding Sandy relief</a> efforts.)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But what troubled me profoundly was the blame the senator placed
for the “deteriorating conditions” that are responsible for increased wildfire
risk. Senator Daines notes that we are at risk due to beetle kill in our
forests “being left untreated”—a risk that he says is compounded by “years of
inadequate forest management practices, spurred by obstructionist litigation
from fringe groups and excessive regulations.”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Really? Well, I guess it’s time for me to whip out some
“fancy” social science and give a little lesson in the funnel of causality. This
is a theory developed by Campbell et al in their path-breaking work <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The American Voter</i>, published in 1960.
Essentially, Campbell et al argue that while the proximate decision influencing
how someone votes is a person’s issue position, those issue positions are the
product of a person’s party identification, which itself (often?) is a function
of how the person was socialized into politics by his or her parents.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In other words, there’s a causal chain one needs to follow
to understand the best and most powerful predictor of voting behavior, and that
predictor is partisan identification—a bundle of attitudes and beliefs that is
not immediately proximate to the voting decision. Issue positions don’t really
matter—it’s the partisanship behind those positions that do.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now let’s apply the funnel of causality to Daines’ argument
on wildfires: According to his op-ed piece, the proximate causes for the risk
we face, which are the tired trope of “government mismanagement” and “fringe
environmentalists,” are the real problem Montanans face and the ones that
require attention and redress.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But one must ask: Why is there more beetle kill in the first
place? And why has the <a href="http://news.agu.org/press-release/more-bigger-wildfires-burning-western-u-s-study-shows/">size
of wildfires</a> been on the rise in the United States, Canada, and
globally—both as the charts below indicate and a <a href="http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/study-finds-climate-change-is-increasing-length-of-wildfire-seasons/article_f0233bc7-0dbe-557b-b2a3-110d841e3c42.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=curated&utm_content=BGKarenS">recent
study demonstrated</a>? Oh, right: Because the warmer winters associated with global
warming mean fewer Pine Bark beetles are dying off, enabling them to leave behind
more dead trees strewn about waiting to burn up. All of this is well-documented
Andrew Nikiforuk’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Empire-Beetle-Killing-Americas-Foundation/dp/1553655109"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Empire of the Beetle</i></a>. And, again,<a href="http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150714/ncomms8537/full/ncomms8537.html"> a recent study</a> demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to more wildfire
activity globally.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinC-cy_cZIqNzSVCvtMHwknWICqXBeXnhnqCgrqN3DFfYSLWOPp6SYU927DiMokWb2RaAqXoEixQfhJs_99CfUiYDnvwpfyxhvml3ImgbkNHc24fEaTcq8QZ_GN73ppe6OFvc42wDNXnm-/s1600/Forest_fires_Burn_Canada_Hectacre.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinC-cy_cZIqNzSVCvtMHwknWICqXBeXnhnqCgrqN3DFfYSLWOPp6SYU927DiMokWb2RaAqXoEixQfhJs_99CfUiYDnvwpfyxhvml3ImgbkNHc24fEaTcq8QZ_GN73ppe6OFvc42wDNXnm-/s400/Forest_fires_Burn_Canada_Hectacre.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Total Hectares Burned by Wildfires in Canada, 1970-2013. Source: Canadian National Forestry Database </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR7QoHe-qwJka0B5zphDDydgk_hlHsHuNaLsgqS59xMMK1fkL_i6sX_QSL1s0Ffmld8anz5i9l8AzgYUOtmyg_WENZLdzD29WXy_LMN3gB5P9HX66efP5eNBCkpftB7PLNfHT-57cD2ZMR/s1600/US+Wildfires.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR7QoHe-qwJka0B5zphDDydgk_hlHsHuNaLsgqS59xMMK1fkL_i6sX_QSL1s0Ffmld8anz5i9l8AzgYUOtmyg_WENZLdzD29WXy_LMN3gB5P9HX66efP5eNBCkpftB7PLNfHT-57cD2ZMR/s400/US+Wildfires.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Total Acres Burned in the US (in millions of Acres), 1960-2014. Source: CRS Report, "Federal Funding for Wildfire Control and Management," July 5, 2011 and National Interagency Fire Center.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Daines is giving far too much credit to proximate
causes: lawsuits and mismanagement. The root problem
is global warming. We need to address that if we really want to get a handle on
our wildfire risk. And to address that we, as global citizens, need to come to
grips with our role in global warming via our insatiable appetite for carbon
emissions.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unfortunately, Senator Daines voted against an amendment
earlier this year during the Keystone XL debate acknowledging the human role in
climate change and, when running for the House, indicated in an interview a few years ago that
the <a href="http://mtpr.org/post/interview-us-house-candidate-steve-daines">“jury
is still out”</a> on the role of CO-2 emissions in our ever-warming world. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
The jury is not out. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Ninety-seven
percent of studies</b> unambiguously endorse the notion that rising carbon
dioxide levels, the result of human activity, are an important and substantial
contributor to global warming. Check out the information yourself at <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/">NASA.</a><br />
</div>
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How many of you, when running a business or a household,
place your bets on the 3 percent versus the 97 percent? If Senator Daines did
this during his business career, I assure you, his career would have been much
shorter and far less successful than it was. If I said it is only a "theory" that how people vote is a product largely of their partisanship, I'd be drummed out of the profession with good cause. The problem is that it is very hard for people to accept information that conflicts with their priors. Humans don't like cognitive dissonance, so instead, we reject information when it doesn't fit our beliefs. Worse, we search for justifications to confirm why that information is wrong and why what we believe is right. It is hard to overcome cognitive dissonance, but we--and those whom we elect to serve us--must.<br />
<br /></div>
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The senator is a bright, articulate public servant. He is a
graduate of Montana State, and has a degree in engineering. One would think
that he would, as a man of science, make public policy on science and not
advanced smoke-and-mirrors arguments about a very real threat our forests face
from wildfire. How we fund fire fighting absolutely must change: Daines is
right on that. But if we are really going to make our forests safer today and
for future generations, we need to stop blaming red herrings and, instead, face
the facts staring us straight in the face with regards to climate change.</div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-76186619677613377182015-07-22T21:04:00.002-06:002015-07-22T21:09:10.428-06:002016: Is there a Republican NOT running for President? Bueller? Bueller?What's more than the number of NFL players at team can have on the field?<br />
<br />
The number of Republican candidates who have formerly announced their campaign for the presidency in 2016.<br />
<br />
That's 16 Republican candidates to 11 NFL players. And, when you count the number of announced Democratic candidates (5), you almost have a complete offensive and defensive line! <br />
<br />
As I sat and contemplated that number, I thought it had to be not only largest Republican presidential primary field, but the single largest presidential primary slate for the two major parties combined in the modern era.<br />
<br />
Turns out, I was right.<br />
<br />
OK, first the caveats. I define the modern presidential era with the 1972 campaign because that's the year that the McGovern-Fraser reforms, adopted by the Democratic Party, transformed the presidential nomination process. Essentially, the reforms opened up the selection process to voters in primaries and caucuses and while the reforms were established by the Democratic primary, the consequences of the reforms quickly spread to the Republican Party.<br />
<br />
Second, it is hard to develop a hard and fast rule first for determining whether a candidate is seriously contesting the nomination. I took the lead of political scientist <a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/opinion-blog/2015/06/24/why-so-many-republicans-are-running-in-2016">Matthew Dickinson</a> who recently opted for the standard used by Bill Mayer and Alan Silverleib: Did the candidate file a statement of candidacy with the FEC and who formally announced. For 1972 through 2008, I pulled from the list complied by Mayer and Silverlieb themselves in their chapter of the edited volume <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Making-Presidential-Candidates-2012/dp/1442211709/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1437619453&sr=8-1&keywords=the+making+of+presidential+candidates+2012"><i>The Making of Presidential Candidates 2012</i></a>. I then calculated the totals myself for 2012 and 2016, counting only the candidates that seriously contested the primaries or who had held previous elected office (so, Governor Tim Pawlenty and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann count, even though they were out before the first electoral contest, but so does Herman Cain of 9-9-9 fame).<br />
<br />
Because I love charts, here's a chart. Click on it to enlarge.<br />
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<br />
What we get is 16 candidates in 2016--five more than the 11 Republicans running in 2008, 2012, and--yes--2000 (many people seem to think it was on McCain versus Bush, but there were many others who simply exited very early). With five Democrats announced today, that's 21 candidates total running for the Democratic and Republican nods. That's two more than in 2008, which saw 19 candidates total.<br />
<br />
And, look at the resumes of just the Republican candidates. We have:<br />
<br />
Former or Current Governors (8): Jindal, Bush, Perry, Kaisch, Walker, Christie, Huckabee, Pataki<br />
<br />
Former or Current U.S. Senators (5): Rubio, Cruz, Graham, Paul, Santorum<br />
<br />
Amateurs (3): Carson, Trump, Fiorina<br />
<br />
Democrats<br />
<br />
Former or Current U.S. Senators (3): Sanders, Clinton, and Webb<br />
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Former or Current Governors (2): O'Malley and Chafee<br />
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Dickinson's article, linked above, explains why so many Republicans are running for the job, noting that there is no incumbent candidate, it is unusual for the sitting party to hold the White House for more than two consecutive terms, and some candidates may be running for reasons other than winning. I agree with the points he makes. What I'm interested in knowing is how Republican primary voters--and, to a lesser degree, Democratic primary voters, will be able to make clear choices in such a crowded field. As other political scientists have noted, including Washington State University professor Travis Ridout and Vanderbilt professor Larry Bartels, is election outcomes can quickly narrow the field both for the media and voters in subsequent primary contests.<br />
<br />
That is, the media will concentrate its attention on the top three or four vote getters in the Iowa caucus and Republican primary and hence, voters will learn more about those candidates than the others. The major difference now, however, is the presence of Super PACs--which considerably changes the information game for voters. Between wealthy backers of candidates and state Republican Parties adopting proportionate delegate selection rules for early contests, the Republican primary process should be considerably lengthened. That, of course, is historically unusual given that the Republican Party historically has favored winner take all contests that allow an early frontrunner to quickly garner enough delegates to become the party's nominee early.<br />
<br />
In 2008, McCain had the Republican nomination wrapped up by mid-March while the Democratic contest continued through early June. Democrats will likely think this is to their advantage, as a long, drawn out primary will bloody the eventual Republican nominee who will then go down to defeat to Hillary Clinton in November.<br />
<br />
Of course, that's not how events played out in 2008, now is it? Competition tends to bring out the best in candidates and, more often than not, make the eventual nominee stronger. Perhaps the competition among Republicans and a longer contest may work to their benefit in 2016 as well.<br />
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-26761633882783984782015-04-24T11:39:00.004-06:002015-05-07T20:35:27.560-06:00A New Adventure and a New Blog to Document itIn case you've been wondering where that Parker guy went, you may want to check out my new blog (with today's inaugural post):<br />
<a href="http://bigskyyanksinuk.blogspot.com/"><br /></a>
<a href="http://bigskyyanksinuk.blogspot.com/">Montana Yankees in King Arthur's Court </a><br />
<br />
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I've been working furiously over the past year to put together a new course offering for students at Montana State that involves us learning about British politics up close, up front, and in the thick of the action. This has required a lot of my attention and bandwidth, as I've had to read up on developments and changes from an academic and practical perspective, create course content, and figure out whether we can do laundry in our hotels! The learning curve on any new course is steep and the gradient is steeper when you include arranging a travel itinerary and reaching out to current and former parliamentarians to convince them to meet 17 university students to talk about representation. But, all of it, has been an intellectual labor of love. I'm thrilled to be leading the first ever Montana State University political science study abroad class this spring.<br />
<br />
Follow the blog above if you wish to travel with us. I'll add more content about US and Montana politics as the semester here begins to wind down.<br />
<br />
And, as the English say, "Cheerio"!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-2217003690438765932015-02-25T08:32:00.002-07:002015-02-25T08:32:38.552-07:00Is Ryan Zinke Aiming for the United States Senate in 2018?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Members of Congress go to Washington and establish
reputational styles which help explain to constituents the work that they do
while on Capitol Hill. There is no one way to “correctly” represent a place,
but a representational style chosen by a member reflects in part the priorities
of the geographic constituency the member represents and their own personal
inclinations born from their pre-congressional careers. Richard Fenno (1978), in his
book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Home Style</i>, documented the
various representational styles developed by members of Congress and used by
them when explaining their “Washington Work” back home. Fenno documents three
rough representational types: the constituent servant, the policy expert, and
the member of Congress as “one of us.”</span><br />
<br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I discuss these in detail elsewhere (Parker 2015, Parker and Goodman 2009, Parker and Goodman 2013), so I’ll be brief.. A constituent servant helps constituents with casework, policy experts
work on legislation and develop proficiency in a particular issue area, while “one
of us” representatives “<span style="color: black;">work to display their
connectivity to a place and a group—and through that connection, demonstrate
trustworthiness” (Parker 2015: 15).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMPvH6CziCtk5u3xnIzto20Lv07sXtMQ8J-UqTTCDDxaLyHE__fmK6vibeiX0FltgjUMgjW5JRwTgBQmSH5JmXBCOylzjjBxhnfcnA_u3Rv7y6zBHa0gk-JD9OIeANMsxqBogQQPBZnTtH/s1600/Zinke_Photo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMPvH6CziCtk5u3xnIzto20Lv07sXtMQ8J-UqTTCDDxaLyHE__fmK6vibeiX0FltgjUMgjW5JRwTgBQmSH5JmXBCOylzjjBxhnfcnA_u3Rv7y6zBHa0gk-JD9OIeANMsxqBogQQPBZnTtH/s1600/Zinke_Photo.jpg" height="320" width="226" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is clear that Congressman Zinke is comfortably slipping
into a policy expert representational style—emphasizing his defense and foreign
relations credentials (which are bolstered by his membership on the House Armed
Services Committee). This makes sense for two reasons. First, it allows him to
draw upon a pre-political career, which is a considerable electoral and
governing asset. Second, it allows him to establish a representational
relationship without competing directly with Senator Jon Tester or Senator Steve
Daines. I wrote a <a href="http://bigskypolitics.blogspot.com/2011/10/tripartite-representation-congressional.html">blog some time ago</a> noting how House members representing a
state share a representational space with two U.S. Senators (see also Wendy
Schiller’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Partners and Rivals</i>). Just
as U.S. Senators need to figure out how to craft their own distinctive reputations,
so, too, must House members representing a state. This is especially important
because media coverage and space are at a particular premium in these smaller
states; to get attention, you must be doing something different from the rest
of the delegation.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Members of the House face an additional complication
when they are the lone representative. Many House members develop constituent
service reputations in the House. But, as the work of Lee and Oppenheimer (1999)
demonstrate, constituents in small states are more likely to contact their
senators to solve problems and address casework concerns because senators are
just as accessible, if not more so, than the House members in small states. In
fact, the Montana’s senators have nearly twice the personal staff as the House
member and have more offices back home. One of Congressman Denny Rehberg’s
biggest challenges in his 2012 campaign was overcoming this official resource
disparity to compete successfully with Senator Tester—and it is this disparity
as much as other issues that was responsible for his loss.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Congressman Zinke, in choosing to develop a policy
expert representational style, is consciously avoiding the problem faced by
Congressman Rehberg and other House members representing entire states. He is
striking out in a policy area not clearly owned by either Tester or Daines, and
he can establish a favorable reputation among constituents without necessarily
being in the position to be unfavorably compared to the Senate delegation from the
get go. Congressmen simply cannot effectively compete as constituent servants
against their Senate delegation in big states. It is a losing proposition. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But, Congressman Zinke is doing far more with his policy
expert representational style than becoming a statewide voice on national security
matters and simply settling into his House seat for the long haul. Indeed,
Congressman Zinke is consciously building a media presence well-beyond the
statewide Montana media. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Congressman Zinke, unlike his fellow House freshman,
is getting noticed by national news outlets. He has appeared on CNN’s State of
the Union, on the O’Reilly Factor, and on Fox News with Sean Hannity. He was
mentioned in a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">New York Times</i> piece
on veterans in Congress, and had an op-ed published in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Washington Times</i>. This is very unusual indeed for a freshman House
member.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">How unusual? <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Let’s
go to the data!</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I searched Lexis-Nexis Academic between January 5 and
February 19, 2015 for each instance a freshman member of Congress’ name
appeared in print, in the transcripts of national news broadcasts, or on blogs.
I then produced two quick scatterplots. Both scatterplots have each freshmen
house member, alphabetically listed by state, on the X Axis. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The first scatterplot here has the number of mentions
in national broadcast news broadcasts on the Y axis. The black line is the mean
number of mentions, which is a bit more than one mention. The modal category is
zero—meaning most House freshman in the 114<sup>th</sup> Congress are simply
not mentioned by national news broadcasts. Congressman Zinke had five mentions—well
above the average. I also indicate the other House freshman who had more
mentions that Congressman Zinke. (Click on the plot for a larger version)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj33RYjZUMVkT4hE2TvbZwbxaGQKaN9Rpj7OG_RKG01cmdTvAuzkemd3u5Guje_miDi5u1GGYHRcAt4jsdcjuRiPfpGv9u1zHoX_Th4SYvwQs-LE7ZS_FfXNsho6q_jt0d9JPnldbmYONHb/s1600/Zinke_broadcast.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj33RYjZUMVkT4hE2TvbZwbxaGQKaN9Rpj7OG_RKG01cmdTvAuzkemd3u5Guje_miDi5u1GGYHRcAt4jsdcjuRiPfpGv9u1zHoX_Th4SYvwQs-LE7ZS_FfXNsho6q_jt0d9JPnldbmYONHb/s1600/Zinke_broadcast.jpg" height="290" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This actually underestimates, however, the attention
Zinke has received. Congressman Zinke was not just mentioned—he was an invited
guest on these programs on five occasions he shows up in the database. In each
instance, Congressman Zinke focused his remarks on national security and foreign
policy. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Only Congresswoman Mia Love, a freshman Republican
from Utah, who is both Mormon and a Haitian-American, has received anywhere
close to the attention from the national networks. And while she has been
mentioned more than Zinke on national television, she has only been a guest on a
national news program twice. In fact, what seems to explain the attention given
to the other freshman are special descriptive qualities about them.
Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is the youngest woman ever to serve in Congress.
Congressman Curbelo is a Latino Republican who is becoming the party’s face on
immigration. And Congressman Lee Zeldin is the only Jewish Republican in the
chamber and is a vocal critic of the administration from his perch on the
foreign relations committee.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the second scatterplot, the Y-axis represents the
total number of mentions of each freshman House member of the 114<sup>th</sup>
Congress on national news and in non-home state newspapers and blogs. The mean
mention was seven (indicated by the bold black line). Again, Congressman Zinke
outperforms this by far, with a total of 16 mentions—more than twice the
average mentions across all three media platforms. (Click on the plot for a larger version)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczHRJlRFhUF-ZJKgmG4Qonq-duYFBnoRZOPNUSFBERbRSnmPV4GMkVgxZ26ZEWN4h7pY2AigtD1Sck2wewcdpjUUsC-GPXy3SAcVZg6H2Oqlv3aYje632KNVKdB6e8yqHBEhV-YZoZGjZ/s1600/Zinke+SUM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczHRJlRFhUF-ZJKgmG4Qonq-duYFBnoRZOPNUSFBERbRSnmPV4GMkVgxZ26ZEWN4h7pY2AigtD1Sck2wewcdpjUUsC-GPXy3SAcVZg6H2Oqlv3aYje632KNVKdB6e8yqHBEhV-YZoZGjZ/s1600/Zinke+SUM.jpg" height="290" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(Quick side note: As other scholarship has shown,
members of the majority party seem to get a media attention bonus and that’s
the case here—Republican freshman in the House have slightly higher mentions on
the web, in newspapers, and especially on television than Democratic freshmen).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Developing strong national defense credentials from
which to build a constituency beyond Montana helps Zinke both in terms of
reelection to the House and burnishes his credentials in a possible challenge
to Jon Tester in 2018. How?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">First, national media attention is often seen as
desirable by constituents. In one study of national media exposure of U.S.
Senators, Barbara Sinclair (1990) found that the number of mentions in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The New York Times</i> is associated with
higher job approval ratings and feeling thermometer scores from individual
constituents. Second, national media attention can also lead to additional
power within the hall of Congress itself. Sinclair also writes that “within the
Washington political community, national media exposure serves as an indicators
that the senator is a player of consequence and, by showing she or he can
command an audience, it increases the senator’s clout” (489). Zinke benefits by
seeking out and successfully obtaining national media coverage on the campaign
trail and in Washington.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But, thinking long term, developing a national media
attention brings an added bonus beyond the obvious exposure to a network of national
Republicans critical to raising the substantial sums necessary to fund a
competitive Senate bid against an incumbent. It helps craft the perception of an
activist representational style that constituents tend to expect from U.S.
Senators more so than from individual members of Congress.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I present two pieces of evidence in support. The first
is from Fenno’s book on North Dakota Senator Mark Andrews, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">When Incumbency Fails</i> (1992). In that book, Senator Andrews—elected
to his first term in 1980—is concerned about the prospect of facing a strong
challenge from the state’s Democratic Congressman, Byron Dorgan. Dorgan, unlike
Andrews, received considerable positive publicity around the North Dakota and
was constantly holding forums with constituents. Andrews, on the hand, came
home less often and spent much of his time mired in policy detail behind the
scenes—while garnishing negative media attention due to a malpractice lawsuit
he and his wife had launched against the state’s medical establishment in Fargo.
Fenno argues that Andrews was trapped by the constituent service, small ball
legislative politics style he developed as a member of the House Appropriations
Committee—a style which seemed too little for the expectations North Dakotans
had of their U.S. Senator.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The second is my own book, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Battle for the Big Sky</i>. In that book, I did three focus groups with
voters in Gallatin County. One of the questions I asked was whether they saw
senators and members of Congress playing different roles. On the whole, they
agreed that the two positions were qualitatively different. Here’s what Nicholas,
a 60 year old retired policeman said on the subject:</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“I tend,”
said Nicholas, to “see a senator as having the potential to be in the role as a
statesperson much more than a representative.”<span class="A45"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">62 </span></span>Senators could “get
something done” because the House members are “one person in a sea.” Not only
would the Senate get more done but it would be more careful, “more considerate.
[They] will more thoroughly look at something, be more educated on the topic”
(153-154).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In this vein, Zinke looks—in cultivating his
representational style and national media attention—like he’s positioning
himself for a run at the U.S. Senate. Add to this the fact that he has been
openly critical of Senator Tester on more than one occasion (<a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/02/12/exclusive-rep-ryan-zinke-tester-abandoning-montana-values-by-standing-with-democrats-in-favor-of-obamas-executive-amnesty/">here</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fbig-government%2F2015%2F01%2F27%2Fmontanas-sen-jon-tester-flip-flops-on-keystone-xl-pipeline%2F&ei=_urtVM3DFI6zoQTM3ILgCw&usg=AFQjCNG6Sp28IQy2JjbD8WCIJzXc8QXAoA&sig2=tW_vhjzn4Vgn9JHpeej9Yg&bvm=bv.86956481,d.cGU">here</a>) since taking
office, and I very much suspect that he will try to do what Denny Rehberg could
not: Unseat Senator Tester.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVLICz4rzPodgnfq9xV2hPPI9X_kslWvqNDLfkFBbWZvuth-ND9bDtt0NycR0o9xoHBRqKLk_jMr7B3-m1u6bUTZti3FPQkGBFfHnxpc93VXRSsmoVRzJjM8ErTn6AClKvjRpw2vkQZeeY/s1600/officialportraitcolor_tester.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVLICz4rzPodgnfq9xV2hPPI9X_kslWvqNDLfkFBbWZvuth-ND9bDtt0NycR0o9xoHBRqKLk_jMr7B3-m1u6bUTZti3FPQkGBFfHnxpc93VXRSsmoVRzJjM8ErTn6AClKvjRpw2vkQZeeY/s1600/officialportraitcolor_tester.jpg" height="320" width="252" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I asked Zinke about this on KBZK this morning. Watch the interview <a href="http://www.kbzk.com/story/28197519/congressman-zinke-on-montana-this-morning-immigration-keystone-xl-and-tester">here</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<script src="http://KBZK.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=508327;hostDomain=www.kbzk.com;playerWidth=630;playerHeight=355;isShowIcon=true;clipId=11174018;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=overlay" type="text/javascript"></script><a href="http://www.kbzk.com/" title=""></a>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He pooh-poohed the idea, saying that as a member of the "loyal opposition" it was his job to occasionally criticize the other side and that there's nothing amiss in his relationship with Montana's senior senator.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Will he run and, if he runs, will he succeed? I don’t
know. I do know, however, that I will be paying careful attention in the months
and years ahead for hints and clues as to the Congressman’s true intentions.</span></div>
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David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-29746392751217722162015-01-30T22:43:00.002-07:002015-01-31T14:40:33.016-07:00Roll Calls, Lies, and Keystone XL<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]-->Yesterday, the U.S. Senate passed after extensive debate a
bill greenlighting the construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline. The final vote
was 62-32 in favor, two votes more than the 60 vote threshold required to avoid
a filibuster. The Senate version of the bill will either go back to the House
where they can pass it as is, or the House can request a conference committee to
hash out the differences. If the House goes the conference route, the committee
will produce a report subject to a straight up-down vote in both chambers. In
either case, everyone anticipates that some form of Keystone legislation will
be sent to the president within the next week.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifTySSA_ioS6RTOF7d2ikzwDEoQyHpoTS3YvSwBVpIh8pGNp_YJqzbKkaT65JAxzpCxBrBNeAh-QEZOVVd6zEd5FPKqc2No3uj6HG_jAl9nP2W1W3ck_CHYvKKAhWGQrh96LmwvZh7c9MU/s1600/keystone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifTySSA_ioS6RTOF7d2ikzwDEoQyHpoTS3YvSwBVpIh8pGNp_YJqzbKkaT65JAxzpCxBrBNeAh-QEZOVVd6zEd5FPKqc2No3uj6HG_jAl9nP2W1W3ck_CHYvKKAhWGQrh96LmwvZh7c9MU/s1600/keystone.jpg" /></a></div>
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But, it really doesn’t matter. Because President Obama has
indicated he will veto any Keystone XL bill, as he believes that Congress is
intruding on his presidential powers by authorizing an infrastructure project
crossing an international boundary. And, as there are not enough votes in either
chamber to override his veto, Keystone XL will be again delayed and remain
unbuilt unless and until Obama gives the project his assent.</div>
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The political realities of Keystone did not prevent political
gamesmanship in the wake of the vote here in Montana though. Republicans have
been chomping at the bit to get this legislation passed, giving it the
designation of Senate Bill 1 to signal the importance of the issue. But the legislation
has been debated for weeks now and subject to scores of amendments. To expedite
the bill’s passage earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
filed a cloture motion to end debate on the bill and prevent additional
amendments from being considered. As you all know, a cloture motion is used
either to prevent or stop an ongoing filibuster, and if it passes, places
strict limits on further discussion before moving to a vote on final passage.</div>
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This cloture motion failed 53 to 39 (again, the motion
needed 60 votes), with Montana Senator Jon Tester voting against cloture. Montana’s
freshman senator, Steve Daines, supported McConnell and voted to end debate. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFtHD2LKJa-1citBKCPRs4dJyHvJQq2dcxyDshPRAzLesSHmCfR2BEhKnEcsQdnM7Coc3dALn29_IRVpuzaaRhl60IsLTgoGgGmnP1UFpHmVYblVAwB5OzJCXsqwoZ-NP2YFAgOZwVfxE0/s1600/MTCONGDEL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFtHD2LKJa-1citBKCPRs4dJyHvJQq2dcxyDshPRAzLesSHmCfR2BEhKnEcsQdnM7Coc3dALn29_IRVpuzaaRhl60IsLTgoGgGmnP1UFpHmVYblVAwB5OzJCXsqwoZ-NP2YFAgOZwVfxE0/s1600/MTCONGDEL.jpg" height="212" width="320" /></a></div>
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(Caption: Montana's congressional delegation, presumably before the vote on Keystone XL)</div>
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Freshman Congressman Ryan Zinke immediately took the
opportunity to blast Tester. “To me, a vote against the Keystone is a vote
against Montana,” he said. “I’m a proud co-sponsor of the House bill to build
the Keystone XL Pipeline because it is proven to be safe and in the best interest
of Montana. I will always put Montana before raising money from special
interests in Washington, D.C.” (Full story <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/01/27/montanas-sen-jon-tester-flip-flops-on-keystone-xl-pipeline/">here</a>).</div>
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Zinke implied, of course, that Tester’s a flip-flopper
and in the pocket of special interests—special interests that are opposed to
the construction of Keystone and the production of good paying Montana jobs.</div>
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Yesterday’s press release from Montana’s State Republican Party
was much more hyperbolic than Zinke’s statement. Here is what they sent via
e-mail to those subscribing to their list:</div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">“</span><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Last November,
Tester </span></b><a href="http://mtgop.us6.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=c5f38a52a4dc1140da38b155b&id=aea9d3436f&e=a65a5797fc"><b><span style="color: #1c1cc4; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">voted to build the
Keystone XL pipeline</span></b></a><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">. </span></b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">On Monday, Tester joined Senator Democrats’ delay tactics and </span></b></span><a href="http://mtgop.us6.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=c5f38a52a4dc1140da38b155b&id=ce2a3b57a6&e=a65a5797fc"><b><span style="color: #1c1cc4; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">voted against the
Keystone XL pipeline</span></b></a><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">. </span></b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"></span></div>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><b><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Tester </span></b><span style="color: windowtext;"><a href="http://mtgop.us6.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=c5f38a52a4dc1140da38b155b&id=612a6c0e7c&e=a65a5797fc"><span style="color: #1c1cc4; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">claimed</span></a></span><b><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> he wanted more amendments and debate</span></b><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> but last
November- when Tester voted for the Keystone XL pipeline- there were <b><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">no
amendments allowed </span></b>and <b><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">just 6 hours of
debate.</span></b> </span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Under the
Republican-led Senate, there have already been “</span><span style="color: windowtext;"><a href="http://mtgop.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c5f38a52a4dc1140da38b155b&id=9d5ef682ca&e=a65a5797fc"><b><span style="color: #1c1cc4; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">more amendment votes than in all of 2014 under Democratic
control</span></b></a></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">” on the Keystone bill alone. And,
the Senate has spent <b><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">3 weeks debating the bill</span></b>. </span></li>
</ul>
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<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">On Wednesday, Tester voted to </span></b><a href="http://mtgop.us6.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=c5f38a52a4dc1140da38b155b&id=252f5dce46&e=a65a5797fc"><b><span style="color: #1c1cc4; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">support</span></b></a><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"> President Obama’s latest land power grab, allowing Obama to
declare land in Phillips County a national monument and immediately halt
constructio</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">n of the Keystone XL pipeline.”</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
</span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"></span></div>
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Both Congressman Zinke and the Montana Republican Party, in
their eagerness to score political points, are pushing a narrative spun of
cynicism and obfuscation instead of an honest consideration of the facts. And
this, I find as a political scientist, quite disturbing. </div>
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Let’s consider reality for a moment.</div>
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Tester supports construction of Keystone XL, but with some
qualifications, and as he has since the project was proposed. I spoke with him
about Keystone XL and energy development in the Bakken on Veteran’s Day in 2011
as we flew between Billings and Helena—an interview I conducted as part of the
research for my book, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Battle-Representation-Politics-Place-Senate/dp/1483368637/ref=tmm_pap_title_0">Battle
for the Big Sky</a></i>. Here is the transcript verbatim:</div>
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David:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Do you have any problems
with more development in the Balkan?</div>
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Sen. Tester:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>No.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></div>
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David:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>No?</div>
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Sen. Tester:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>No.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As long as it's done right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's
kind of like the Keystone pipeline, as long as it’s done right, you can do
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, I'm going to tell you
what.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There's a lot of times that this
stuff isn't done right and taxpayers for generations and generations to come
have to fix the problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Take a look at
a lot of the abandoned mines around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yeah, they create a bunch of jobs and then when they left, it becomes a
Superfund site the taxpayers have to pick up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That isn't a false choice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
should have been -- the rules should have been dictated early and that's what
I'm saying is make sure we get the playing field established so that it is done
right so that it isn't a false choice. </div>
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David:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Are you confident with the
rules and regulations in place now that the Bakken can be drilled safely?</div>
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Sen. Tester:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Yeah.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></div>
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David:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Well then let me ask the
follow-up question to that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we sit
and put our eggs in the Bakken basket, don't we risk basically having Butte
part 2 over again?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All this development
happens, big towns happen, oil's gone, it collapses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How do we, as a state, look beyond that?</div>
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Sen. Tester:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I don't know that I say we put all our
eggs in the Bakken basket.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think we've
got incredible opportunities in wind and solar and renewable energies across
the board, but we also need to do right because they can be done wrong, but do
those right and expand upon those.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
think the Bakken [play], if that's all we're going to look at for energy
future, big mistake, big mistake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
think if we developed the Balkan right, there are going to jobs there for many,
many years and there can be a level of energy security there for many, many years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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David:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But what about the environmentalist
movement?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There's a number of folks that
are really opposed to the pipeline, opposed to drilling the Bakken and
ostensibly those people are going to be people who are probably going to want
to vote for you and not Denny Rehberg [Tester’s opponent in 2012], isn't there
a risk that they're not going to show up and turn out to help you?</div>
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Sen. Tester:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I always think common sense is going
to be the deciding factor when it comes to elections and I think, if you
develop in a common sense way, everybody can win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s the basis of my Forest Jobs bill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there's going to be people on the hard
right and the hard left that want it all their way, but that's not practical
and it’s not common sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So you've got
to be thoughtful about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You've got to
make sure you do it right. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You've got to
make sure that folks follow the rules. </div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And if agency
folks don't follow the rules, by the way, I don't care if you're talking about
benefits for veterans or you're talking about drilling in the Bakken or
whatever, that's an important part of the equation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So but no, I think enviros in the end can
take a look at what I stand for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You
know, it is a good choice, it is a clear choice for them because you've got, on
the one hand, the guy [Rehberg] who built the Keystone pipeline, come hell or
high water and I'm saying let’s use our heads about this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let's do it right if we're going to do
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the same thing with drilling in
the Balkan, let’s do it right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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I searched Tester’s Senate press releases, available on his
Senate website, for the term “Keystone XL” to further understand his position
on Keystone XL. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first mention of the
project came in 2010, when Tester questioned TransCanada’s request to operate
the proposed pipeline at a higher than standard pressure—a request which TransCanada
withdrew at Tester’s urging. The press release aptly portrays Tester’s position
on Keystone XL: He wants it built, but with certain restrictions. Completely in
step, mind you, with what he told me in fall of 2011 more than a year later.</div>
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That’s the same pattern you see when reviewing Tester’s
votes on amendments to Senate Bill 1. Tester supported some amendments mandating
that the pipeline to be built with American material and labor. He voted for an
amendment clarifying that products produced from tar sands would be subject to
federal petroleum excise taxes. He supported an amendment requiring a renewable
standard for electricity production. He opposed an amendment requiring the
federal home heating assistance program to be funded at a minimum level, and
another restricting the transportation of petroleum coke. </div>
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Most of these amendments, including those Tester favored,
failed. And despite the fact Tester has long supported amendments requiring the
use of American labor and material in the construction of Keystone XL, he
supported the bill on final passage. To be clear, Tester did not get his ideal
Keystone XL bill. But he voted for it anyway—figuring, I suspect, that half a
loaf was better than none.</div>
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You can see all the roll call votes on the Senate website <a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_114_1.htm">here</a>.</div>
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So, where’s the alleged flip flop? As far as I can tell, in
my review of previous pieces of legislation and Senate amendments concerning
Keystone XL going back to 2011, Tester has always supported the construction of
Keystone XL.</div>
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The “flip flop” is because Tester did not vote in favor of
cutting off debate on Senate Bill 1 says the Montana Republican Party. He’s not
a Keystone XL “purist” because he favored more debate and more amendments.</div>
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Well, a funny thing happens when a party moves from the
minority to the majority. Because all of the sudden, positions the party once
took become, shall we say, inconvenient. </div>
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When Republicans served in the Senate minority in the last
Congress, they expressed indignity when Senator Reid did not allow them the
courtesy of considering Republican amendments to Democratic-crafted bills. Democrats
did not allow the amendment process to run its full course, they said, and they
felt debate was rushed and did not consider the minority party’s point of view.</div>
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Here’s Republican Senator Orrin Hatch in a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">National Journal</i> piece on Harry Reid’s
ironclad control over the Senate floor agenda, achieved by filling the
amendment tree (thereby shutting out the minority party in the amending of
legislation): "When the Senate Democratic leadership decides to bring a
bill to the floor, far more often than not we are blocked from offering any
amendments," Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said on the floor last week.” You
can access the article <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/how-democrats-play-the-obstruction-game-20140407">here</a>.
Republicans, of course, vowed to allow more amendments and greater debate if
only voters gave them a majority in the Senate.</div>
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Majority status means majority control, and it often means
that in order to get things done, you have to shut down debate and control what
can and cannot be discussed. It also means limiting the amending process. I’ll
bet you good money that we’ll see far less amend-a-thons on future bills in the Republican-led
Senate. The Republicans, while in the minority, doth protest too much.</div>
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On this point, the Republican Party’s press release was disingenuous.
But what followed next was either disturbing or laughable. Take your pick.</div>
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One of the amendments voted upon by the Senate AFTER cloture
failed was Senator Steve Daines’ Senate Amendment 132, which expressed the
“sense of Congress” that restrictions should be placed on the president’s
ability to create National Monuments. You can read the text of the amendment <a href="https://www.congress.gov/amendment/114th-congress/senate-amendment/132">here.</a></div>
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Tester voted no on that amendment—a vote which he never
would have taken had the cloture petition succeeded—the same cloture petition
that Tester was criticized for voting against in the same press release! </div>
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<br /></div>
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So Tester’s faulted for voting against cloture, and then he
is criticized for endorsing “<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">President Obama’s latest land power grab, allowing Obama
to declare land in Phillips County a national monument and immediately halt
construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.” At least, that’s </span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">what is</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
spun in the press release.</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Don’t believe it.</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Facts are stubborn things. Had Daines’ amendment passed, it
would have done nothing to change existing statute.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is no land grab in Phillips County—and even if there
was or is, Senator Tester’s vote on Senate Amendment 132 certainly didn’t
express his views on it. At best, Tester voting no suggests that he believes
that the executive branch has and should have the power to protect land by
declaring it a national monument under the Antiquities Act. Every president
since has created at least one National Monument—including Gerald Ford and
Ronald Reagan. It does not mean he wants President Obama to drop a national
monument in Phillips County and stop Keystone XL because <i>HE WANTS KEYSTONE XL
BUILT.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The process of legislating is messy, tortuous, and
complicated. To truly understand it requires taking each and every vote and
placing it into its proper context. To do otherwise represents a gross
distortion of the how the Senate and House operate, and at its core, represents
elevating a politically-driven narrative at the expense of what Stephen Colbert
termed as “truthiness.” </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Perhaps more importantly, no piece of legislation is
perfect. To expect our legislators to vote for the perfect bill asks the
impossible. No legislator can or should be held to that standard. But the way
in which political operatives abuse roll call records, they aim to make us think
there is only one way—the true way—to represent a political position and the
interests of a place or a people. Everything else is craven and suspect. I
fundamentally object to this standard, and to this particular misrepresentation
of legislating. We ought to expect better of civic discussion and discourse.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One final point. Using the logic of the Montana Republican
Party as expressed in their press release, I guess Senator Mitch McConnell
hates Keystone, too, because he voted against his own cloture motion! He
flip-flopped!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Don’t believe me? Go look it up <a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=114&session=1&vote=00030">here</a>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
No, of course not. He voted against it as a procedural
matter so that he could later introduce a possible motion to reconsider on the
bill. But hey, context doesn’t matter, right?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-34023094147369749622015-01-10T01:12:00.000-07:002015-01-10T08:35:33.124-07:00The Midterms, An Unpopular President, and Politics Not as Local as You Think: Forecasting Montana's Legislative RacesDo campaigns really matter? Can politicians, much as Merida tried to do in the Disney movie Brave, change their "fate" and win elections despite unfavorable fundamentals? Or are they destined to blow a bunch of money fighting windmills a la Don Quixote?<br />
<br />
It should be clear that I believe campaigns matter; at least, that's exactly the story I tell in <i>Battle for the Big Sky</i>. Jon Tester won despite fundamentals clearly favoring the Republican Party and Congressman Rehberg in the epic 2012 battle for Montana's Senate seat.<br />
<br />
But I also make plain in that book that campaigns very often do not affect the outcomes of elections, and in fact, cite approvingly the work by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck who--in their fantastic book the Gamble--show that fundamental factors (the economy, presidential popularity, and the like) pretty much determine presidential election outcomes regardless of what the campaigns do. As the 2014 congressional elections demonstrated, forecasters knew for quite some time that Republican odds of taking control of the Senate were fairly high. If anything, as the election drew closer to November, the odds got decidedly worse for Democratic incumbents in the Senate despite running strong campaigns (see Mark Begich and Kay Hagan).<br />
<br />
As I sat and watched the state legislative races here in Montana unfold, I kept getting media inquiries about various competitive races. Did the Democrats have a shot to win SD 14 in Havre with Greg Jergeson? Could Jebediah Hinkle, who unexpectedly won the Republican primary for SD 32, beat known and former congressional candidate Franke Wilmer (a colleague of mine here at MSU)?<br />
<br />
Invariably, I had to plead ignorance to reporters. I hadn't a clue. I know what the parties told me, but I had very little information to give reporters other than that and, let's face it, the parties had their own spin to advance. Incumbents tend to get reelected. Midterm elections are bad for the president's party generally speaking. Fundraising gives some sense of the candidate's talents and support.<br />
<br />
Then--nothing. That's all I had. <br />
<br />
Fact of the matter is, I had very little information with which to make any informed judgment about specific races. And to be frank, most voters had even less information with which to make their own judgments. Truth is, down ballot races like state legislative races are low information environment elections. State legislative candidates can generally raise enough money to get some name id and help voters associate their name with a party id, but other than that, most voters simply don't know much about the candidates other than that.<br />
<br />
So I was skeptical every time I heard so and so had knocked on more doors, or candidate Y had more signs than candidate X. I just didn't think, in a low information environment election, it would make much difference on the final outcome of most of these races. And, to prove my point, I set out to forecast the outcomes of each state legislative race in Montana.<br />
<br />
And I would do it purely with publicly available information. <br />
<br />
Here's what I did. I set out to predict the probability that the Democratic candidate in each race would win their seat. In statistical terms, I ran a logistic regression with the output the mean probability of a Democratic win in that seat. Associated with that mean statistic is a confidence interval surrounding that estimate. For example, my model predicted that Diane Sands in Missoula had a 54 percent probability of winning her Senate seat, but the probability of a win could be as low as 31 percent or as high as 76 percent. On average, her chances were a tad better than a flip of a coin.<br />
<br />
How did I develop that estimation? I gathered information on past elections in Montana, from 2004 through 2012. For each race, I gathered the following variables:<br />
<br />
Percentage of the Vote for the Democratic Presidential Candidate<br />
The Type of Seat (State Senate or State House)<br />
Whether there was a midterm election (-1 if the President was a Democrat, 1 if the President was a Republican)<br />
Democratic candidate spending as percentage of the total spending in the race (all data gathered from Follow the Money's website)<br />
Whether the Democratic candidate was an incumbent<br />
Whether the GOP candidate was an incumbent<br />
Presidential Approval rating averaged for the year which I then interacted with the midterm election variable<br />
<br />
I ran this model using the data from 2004 through 2012. It turns out that this model correctly predicted the outcomes 94 percent of the time. Next, I collected the data for the 2014 cycle (using presidential vote estimates from 2012 for the newly drawn districts courtesy of <a href="http://bigskypolitics.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-midterms-unpopular-president-and.html">Daily Kos</a>--thanks Mike Jopek for reminding me that's where I found it). Then, using the estimates from the model for 2004-2012, I estimated the probability of a Democratic win in each 2014 race using the 2014 variables.<br />
<br />
Using this, I predicted that the Democrats would lose two seats in the Senate and gain one in the House. In reality, the Democrats outperformed the model by holding even in the Senate and gaining two seats in the House.<br />
<br />
But, my model--using no polls, no data about the ground game, and nothing specific about candidate efforts other than fundraising--came pretty close.<br />
<br />
All the variables behaved as one might expect. Incumbents perform better. The more Democrats dominated the spending in a race, they better they did. But was striking the drag President Obama had on Democratic prospects in the state legislature.<br />
<br />
Let's look at the State Senate. Democrats had an excellent recruit in Greg Jergeson in SD 14. But Obama only got 40 percent of the vote in that district in 2012; my model gave Jergeson only 45 percent chance of winning. Jergeson lost.<br />
<br />
Senate District 32 Obama got almost 49 percent of the vote, and yet--despite having substantially outraised Republican Hinkle--the model only predicted a mean 29 percent chance of Democrat Franke Wilmer winning. Hinkle won.<br />
<br />
Carlie Boland, who ran in a district that gave Obama 51 percent of the vote in 2012, had only a 12 percent chance of winning. She lost to Republican Brian Hoven.<br />
<br />
Only Mary McNally (D) surprised in my model, as it only gave her 22 percent chance of winning a district that had gone for Mitt Romney by nearly 52 percent in 2012. She beat Tonya Shellnutt, 54-46.<br />
<br />
Campaigns matter. Except when they don't. And in a year when the win was firmly at the back of one party and in an era where redistricting has become far more sophisticated and voters increasingly vote straight ticket, campaigns mattered in very few of the state legislative races. That said, my model predicted that the Democrats would do worse than they did, so it would seem in a select few places, individual efforts and candidates may have made the difference. Diane Sands' winning by only a few vote and Mary McNally's victory in Billings very likely had to do with their own and the Democratic Party's concerted efforts to stem the red tide.<br />
<br />
Next time a reporter calls me about state legislative races, I'll have a bit more to say.<br />
<br />
PS: I ran my model on election day, but decided not to share my predictions until after the polls closed. I didn't want to inadvertently affect any outcomes, particularly after the big row over the Stanford-Dartmouth experiments. <br />
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-83373924738192490382014-10-25T10:46:00.001-06:002014-10-25T10:46:37.113-06:00Mailergate: A considered responseThe folks at the Western Political Science Association are re-branding their blog, the New West. And yesterday, a professor who does field experiments posted a thoughtful reaction to the Stanford mail experiments in the Wheat-Van Dyke race which has received overwhelmingly negative reaction here in Montana.<br />
<br />
I encourage you to read the piece <a href="http://thewpsa.wordpress.com/2014/10/25/messing-with-montana-get-out-the-vote-experiment-raises-ethics-questions/">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6695411995525437118.post-10019491097808602182014-10-22T12:59:00.003-06:002014-10-23T09:43:54.182-06:00A Democratic Republic Requires Trust, and Hence Transparency, from Congressional Candidates<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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In my role as political analyst for MTN, I sat down on
August 14 with Republican House candidate Ryan Zinke and asked him about
releasing his full military records. In case you missed the interview, you can
watch it <a href="http://www.kbzk.com/news/zinke-agrees-to-release-military-records/">here</a>. I was promised during that interview, and afterwards by Zinke
spokesperson Shelby DeMars, that I—along with the AP and Chuck Johnson of Lee Newspapers—would
receive the complete set of records. I was also told that this would take some
time.</div>
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<br /></div>
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It is now October 22, 2014, and the general election is less
than two weeks away. In last night’s House debate in Great Falls, John Adams of
the <i>Great Falls Tribune</i> specifically asked state senator Zinke about a fitness
report in 1999 that one other former Navy Seal suggests indicates some problems
with Zinke’s performance. Zinke did not provide a clear answer as to what was
in that report, and suggested that Adams “was unjust, unfair, and shameless”
for asking the question.</div>
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Adams’ request was not shameless.Watch the exchange <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gmwp3v1Ovw&feature=youtube_gdata_player">here</a>.</div>
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<br /></div>
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I have, thus far, believed
that the Zinke campaign would in good faith produce those records in a timely
fashion. And I'm hopeful that they will still release those records. And yet, I still have not gotten what was promised. I, like John Adams,
am beginning to wonder why.</div>
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<br /></div>
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But, if I may suggest, the problem is bigger than Ryan Zinke
and his record as a Navy Seal. The problem hits directly at democratic
discourse and accountability in an era when fewer and fewer candidates running
for public office have extensive records in elected office. Yet, they ask US to
credit them with those experiences as evidence they are suitable for service in
higher public office. I believe Ryan Zinke, Steve Daines, John Lewis, and
Amanda Curtis all should release as much of their employment records as
possible to the press and the public. These experiences, they claim, will make
them excellent public servants. If that’s the case, then we—the public who
choose them—should be able to make the judgment ourselves of those records.</div>
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<br /></div>
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I think there are three very good reasons for why we should
expect transparency from our congressional candidates in this regard.</div>
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<br /></div>
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First, such transparency is not unusual for those seeking
public employment of any kind. Take, for example, the information I have to
generally produce when applying for academic jobs (both public and private). As
a job candidate, I have produced the following for employers:</div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Transcripts (Graduate and undergraduate)</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>A copy of my diploma</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>My cv (an academic version of a resume)</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>References and letters of support from those
references</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Student evaluations of my teaching</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>A teaching statement</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>A research statement</div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Publications</div>
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Then, if I’m lucky enough to get a campus interview, I often
have to give a research presentation and a teaching demonstration. All of this
is to demonstrate that my academic credentials are real and that I am competent
as a teacher and researcher. </div>
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And, I should say, that a request for my transcripts from
Wisconsin or Indiana can be filled within 24 hours. Not more than two or three
months.</div>
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In running for Congress, candidates use their records to
bolster the case for why voters should vote for them and that they deserve the
trust of voters. Candidates who have served in elected office often have
extensive public records that voters can evaluate and pick apart—and even if
they do not, the opposition is more than happy to do it for the voters.</div>
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Ryan Zinke’s House campaign biography begins with the
headline: Montana’s Proven Leader. He highlights his accomplishments in nine
paragraphs. One paragraph details his service in the Montana Senate. Five
paragraphs focus on his “distinguished record” of military service. It is clear
that this service as a Navy Seal is critical to how he would like voters to
evaluate him.</div>
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Congressman Daines’ campaign slogan is “More Jobs, Less
Government” and much of his campaign pitch focuses on his experience in
creating jobs—an experience he says begins with cutting government regulation
and red tape. In his campaign biography of seven paragraphs, one full paragraph
and the portion of another details his business experience. Only one full
paragraph, by contrast, details his experience in Congress. Congressman Daines
says he’s a job creator. How exactly did he create jobs during his time at
RightNow and how many of those jobs were created in Montana, in the United
States, and in other countries?</div>
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Democratic candidates John Lewis and Amanda Curtis are not off
the hook here. John Lewis spent his professional career working as a staffer
for Senator Baucus, and on his campaign webpage, he notes that “working for
Senator Max Baucus and with Montana veterans, John spearheaded legislation
giving businesses incentives to hire veterans. What began as John’s idea
to better serve veterans is now the law of the land.” We, as voters, should
have access to the memos staffer Lewis wrote which demonstrate how central he
was to this veterans legislation. Lewis should also ask that Senator Baucus
release his personnel file so we can see the evaluations he received as a part
of the Senator’s staff in Washington and here in Montana. And Amanda Curtis,
who touts her experience as a teacher, should demonstrate to us whether she
excelled as a teacher or not.</div>
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The main point of all of this is not that Ryan Zinke was a
bad Navy Seal, that Steve Daines didn’t create jobs as part of an important
hi-tech company, that John Lewis wasn’t a competent Senate staffer, and Amanda
Curtis wasn’t a great teacher. The point is the voters deserve to have the
ability to evaluate those claims for themselves absent a narrative constructed
by the campaign, just as my fellow political scientists have the right to
examine my academic record to help them decide—without my own spin—that I am
the right person or not for their institution. We should be able to determine
how distinguished a military career is, what makes job creator successful, and
the whether the influence a Senate staffer has on legislative outcomes is
substantial.</div>
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A second reason why these records should be made available
is the nature of who is running for Congress. In the past, the common path for
folks running for higher office was to spend considerable time working their
way up through a series of public offices, building a public record that voters
could evaluate. As our elected officials are increasingly coming from outside
the public sphere or, if they do serve in the public eye, with much shorter
tenures in office, we need to be able to assess those experiences. At least
with public officials, there is a clear public record for all to see. Without a
public track record, voters are left to the rhetoric of the candidates—who are
clearly not unbiased—to make sense of those private employment experiences. At
the very least, they should give us as much access to private records that we
can get from those in public employ. </div>
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Finally, in an era of political polarization, it is even
more important that voters have access to unbiased sources of information to
help them make informed political judgments outside the spin room. Instead of blindly
accepting what candidates or their opponents tell you, it is even more
important to have metrics with which voters can independently judge the
records, temperament, and fitness of their candidates for public office. And,
even more important, an independent and free press must have access to these
records to do just that. </div>
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Transparency helps us make better decisions and to have more
trust in the democratic process. One of the most important New Deal reforms, in
my judgment, was the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission which
required publicly traded companies to release particular information in a
timely and regular fashion about the company’s operations and budgets. This
information allows investors far more confidence when they participate while at
the same time providing a somewhat level playing field for investors. This
trust has allowed the creation of mutual funds and a retirement system funded
largely by investments in the stock market. Shouldn’t we demand the same kind
of accountability and openness of those who wish to serve in public office?
Shouldn’t we demand more of and from them as investors in the democratic
marketplace?</div>
David Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16269564495760820631noreply@blogger.com1