Sunday, August 13, 2017

Our Republic: We Better Start Keeping It. Fast.



I’m a political scientist—with an emphasis on the science.  I’ve viewed my role in the public sphere as inserting into debates what political scientists have learned about political processes and institutions—and to try to keep both sides faithful to the empirics. At heart, I’ve always been a skeptic and my training as a political scientist makes me even more so. I'm not one to join partisan frays. It's not my style. I just go where data lead.

The election of Donald Trump, someone who had zero political experience, certainly sent my skepticism into high gear given the data. Limited political experience does not often equate with political success. One major exception is Dwight David Eisenhower, but he is the exception who proves the rule. Eisenhower was an exceptional student of leadership and, as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, developed a well-honed ability to convince, negotiate and compromise with many talented, egoistic generals as they fought the Third Reich to rid the world of Nazism.

During the fall campaign, a video of historian David McCullough made the rounds on social media. I’ve long admired McCullough’s accessible and well-written history, especially his biography of Truman.

In the video, McCullough draws our attention to Eisenhower’s four qualities of leadership, noting that Trump exhibited none of those qualities. He had neither character, ability, experience, nor responsibility. In short, McCullough did not believe Trump was suited for the presidency. He was especially not suited to articulating a clear moral purpose and acting as the conciliator in chief in times of national sorrow and crisis.

Trump’s repeated failure as a leader over the past eight months should not surprise. He was as prepared for the presidency as I am to do any kind of home or car repair.

Yet the president can be a poor leader and the nation can survive: We managed the ineptitude of Hoover and Carter. What is most troubling is that Trump himself, through apparently carefully contrived acts, may be encouraging values antithetical to the Republic itself.

That causes me great alarm and concern, as it should every American regardless of party.

There are certain moral certainties, bright lines in the sand, that are not debated in civilized society. Racism, white supremacy, and support for Nazism are among them. No race, no people, no ethnicity is superior to any other. Advocating violence against someone else because they are different than you is wrong. Killing innocent people is wrong. Full stop.

An easy test of leadership, methinks, is denouncing yesterday’s terrible events in Charlottesville with clarity and precision. “Nazism, racism, and violence are acts of terrorism, and have no place in our Republic and receive my strongest condemnation” would’ve been a good start. Perhaps you might have taken a cue from Vice President Pence, who had no problem naming who was the blame for yesterday's events: "We have no tolerance for hate and violence from white supremacists, neo-Nazis or the KKK," said Pence, calling them "dangerous fringe groups" today in Colombia.

Instead, the President issued a statement that was ambiguous at best, but spoke volumes: Calling out racism, Nazism, and white supremacy wasn’t on the table. Best case? He’s a coward and inept. I'm less inclined to believe this is the case: He's spoken out clearly concerning acts of terrorism undertaken by Muslims in the past. And Trump certainly has no trouble telling us what he thinks most of the time. That leaves the worst case: He’s sympathetic to their cause.

Many Americans voted for Trump because they were angry at what they believe our country had become. Others voted for Trump simply because he was the Republican nominee. Still others voted for him because they couldn’t stomach Hillary Clinton. It is not for me to judge a person who voted for Trump. That’s their business, and frankly, that’s water under the bridge

We’ve seen Trump can’t stomach doing what’s right when the path is clear, and may be conspiring with forces seeking to undermine the very foundation of our Republic. It doesn’t matter how you voted, but how you answer the question: “What now?”

If you are troubled with what you’ve seen, at least we have a constitutional system with multiple points of access. Write to the president; tell him how you feel (although I'm skeptical that would matter). Write to your congressional delegation: Remember, ambition counters ambition in our system of separated (but shared) powers. Write to your state parties and tell them to make changes to the primary system that will make it more likely better candidates survive the nomination process (ironically, that may mean a little less democracy in the primaries and more control to party elites who were overwhelmingly opposed to Trump). But do something. Be heard, while you still can.

We have a democracy. That is, as Ben Franklin said, as long as we can keep it. We’ve kept it for more than 200 years.

Whether we keep it for another 200 depends on the choices you make now.

Just in case you need a refresher course on leadership, here’s how great leaders should behave:

1.       Responsibility. Eisenhower, on the eve of D-Day, prepared this statement should the landings fail:

“Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I
 have  withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based on  the  best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy did all that bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt it is mine alone."

2.       Character. George W. Bush after 9-11.

3.       Ability and Experience. LBJ and the Voting Rights Act.

4.       Fortitude. Ronald Reagan in Berlin at the Brandenburg Gates.

5.       All of the Above. Churchill. 1940, as France fell and Britain stood alone.

Ask our members of Congress to display the leadership our President will not.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Legsilative Effectiveness and Influence: It's more than Passing Bills



How does one measure influence and the effectiveness of legislators? This is not a trivial question, as voters have to make sense of competing claims during election years when deciding whether to return an incumbent for another two or six year term. Of course, incumbents seek to inflate their importance and influence, while their opponents attempt the opposite. Justin Grimmer wrote a fascinating account of how legislators attempt to puff up their credentials in press releases, claiming credit for government spending and appropriations which are routine--the legislator likely had little role in procuring. 

I am drawn again to the topic of legislative effectiveness and influence by a recent post by Don Pogreba at his new website, The Montana Post. Pogreba contrasts the legislative accomplishments of Senator Tester with those of Senator Daines, suggesting that Tester is far more accomplished than Daines—inferring that Daines has little influence in Washington and does nothing of substance in the U.S. Senate.

Unfortunately, I thought the piece trivializes an important issue to sell a partisan point. Both parties are guilty of simplifying this issue to create a narrative useful to them. Let’s elevate the conversation, and see what political science can offer. Who is more effective: Daines or Tester?
I addressed the issue of influence and effectiveness in Battle for the Big Sky, as a key argument Team Tester made about Congressman Rehberg was that he had accomplished little of substance during his decade plus in the House of Representatives. I wrote this in evaluating the effectiveness of Tester and Rehberg as lawmakers:

            On average, House members passed less than one bill in the 109th through the 111th       Congresses that became law, according to data compiled by the Congressional Bills Project. In the Senate, it isn’t much better: Senators passed fewer than two bills on  average that were signed by the president over the same period.17 Of the 42 bills and resolutions sponsored by Tester during his first four years in office, two passed. Rehberg  passed seven of the 82 bills and resolutions he introduced between 2001 and 2010.18 In neither case do Rehberg nor Tester stand out as successful legislators, but their efforts are less reflective of their individual abilities than they are of governing in an era of   polarization and divided government. Senior members of both chambers tend to be more success­ful because they often have committee chairmanships that provide them with the opportunity and responsibility to advance legislation central to their party’s legislative agendas.

A couple of points are important. First, it’s really hard to pass a bill. Second, it’s really hard for House members to be effective in sponsoring bills—but it is “relatively” easier for Senators to get their legislation made into law. Third, appropriators don’t often sponsor bills and exert influence through earmarks instead. Finally, seniority matters: Freshmen simply don’t pass bills they sponsor in either chamber often. 

Let’s compare apples to apples. In 2007, Senator Tester was a part of the new Democratic majority. According to GovTrack, the same source Pogrebra uses to assess Senator Daines’ performance, Senator Tester did not have a bill sponsored by him (not counting co-sponsored bills) pass that year. In 2015, Senator Daines was also in his first year in the Senate as part of a new Republican majority. And, no surprise, he did not have a single bill sponsored by him become law. 

But sponsoring bills is only one way to think about legislative effectiveness. Indeed, it is a measure that is not terribly useful when looking at freshmen legislators. I noted in Battle for the Big Sky that the Senate gives far more opportunities for senators to participate directly in the legislative process through floor amendments. This is the similar tactic that my Georgia State colleague, Jeff Lazarus, employed to compare the legislative effectiveness of Senators Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Read the piece here; Lazarus concluded that Clinton was the far more effective legislator, owing in part to the support she marshalled for her amendments.

Tester effectively used amendments to advance his legislative priorities, particularly for a freshman Senator in the majority. While he ranked second to last among his class in the passage of sponsored bills (in the first four years of his first term), he was the second most successful Senate amender among the cohort elected in 2006. Of the 38 amendments he sponsored, eleven were adopted on the floor. Again, this data is from my book.
Senator Daines, in the 114th Congress, sponsored 55 floor amendments (Data for this analysis was obtained from Congress.gov). Only five were adopted by the chamber—for a success rate of nine percent. How does that rank among Republican freshmen? 

Eleven Republican freshmen were elected in 2014. Six had higher amendment passage rates than Daines, five had lower success rates. Senators Rounds and Sullivan had 32 percent of their amendments agreed to (about Tester’s success rate), but both sponsored fewer amendments (19 and 41 respectively). At the bottom end of the scale, Oklahoma Senator James Lankford sponsored 34 amendments and had only one receive Senate assent (for a passage rate of 3 percent). Among freshmen, Daines also sponsored the most amendments—eight more than Colorado Senator Corey Gardner (17 percent success rate).

Legislative effectiveness is tricky to measure and must be placed both in career and institutional context. Daines’ inability to pass legislation sponsored by him should not surprise given his relative junior status—and Tester found himself in precisely the same boat when he arrived in Washington. Looking at amendments, Daines is less effective than Tester was early in his career. Tester’s experience as a successful legislator in the Montana Senate has carried over to the U.S. Senate. Daines, whose experience was in the private sector and not in politics prior to arriving on Capitol Hill, likely has had a steep learning curve when it comes to legislative maneuvering on the Senate floor.

One final and related point: political scientists have long argued that term limits are bad for legislatures. As David Mayhew notes in America’s Congress, some of the country’s most important, historic legislative measures were drafted and passed by members of Congress late in their careers. As the above analysis and discussion demonstrates, passing laws is the business of seasoned legislators and not those new to Capitol Hill. It is also not a particularly useful way to measure whether a legislator is effective or not earlier in their careers—especially not in isolation. There are also other ways to think about legislative effectiveness, including casework and pork brought back home. Both of these are hard to measure, and in the case of pork, ever more difficult to obtain given the recent ban on earmarks. Legislative effectiveness is multi-faceted and needs to be placed into comparative contexts.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Daines was Right to Shut Down Warren

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren rose Tuesday night to register her objections to Senator Jeff Sessions’ nomination to the Attorney Generalship. In the course of reading a letter from the late Coretta Scott King (widow of Martin Luther King) about her objection to his appointment in 1986 to the federal bench, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell issued an objection saying that Senator Warren had violated Rule 19. That rule states, in part:

“No Senator in debate shall, directly or indirectly, by any form of words impute to another Senator or to other Senators any conduct or motive unworthy or unbecoming a Senator.”

Senator Daines ruled Senator Warren out of order, telling her to take her seat. Warren challenged that ruling, but Senator Daines was sustained on 49-43 party-line vote. Senator Warren was then effectively barred from the remainder of the debate.
Senator Daines ruling Senator Warren out of order
The video of the incident quickly spread across social media. Democrats, liberals, and regular women were furious at a white, male senator suppressing the free speech of a female colleague. Even more galling, they indicated, was that Warren’s male, Democratic colleagues were later allowed to read King’s letter from the floor without interruption, let alone official reprimand.

As a professor of political science, I appreciate Senator Daines’ commitment to civil discourse. It is something that I try to model for my students at Montana State, and it’s a value which has evaporated during these hyper-polarized times. I agree that Senator Daines’ interpretation of Rule 19 falls within the letter of the rule. Senator Warren did charge Senator Sessions with conduct unbecoming of a Senator, even if Senator Warren was quoting someone else.

Daines was right. According to the letter of Rule 19, that is.

But it’s the spirit of the rule—and the intention behind it—that matters. And in that respect, Senator Daines and Senate Republicans erred greatly in ordering the honorable member from Massachusetts to take her seat.

Consider first why something like rule 19 exists: To provide a “safe space” for the difficult and often contentious disagreements about policy and the direction of our nation. Political debates should confine themselves to substantive matters without devolving into attacks on personal character. As we know from the literature on international relations, repeated interactions in negotiations encourages cooperation and long-term thinking. By encouraging elevated discussions whilst removing name-calling, the Senate pushes its members to engage in a battle of ideas and not personalities (Side note: Refusing to engage in personalities was one of President Eisenhower’s keys to successful leadership). At the same time, this encourages the development of relationships that go beyond the disagreements of the moment—relationships essential to the institution functioning well and the production of good policy. In this case, Rule 19 is a good thing to have handy for officers presiding over debate.
While Rule 19 encourages elevated discourse, its use on Tuesday evening conflicted with the constitutional responsibility of the Senate; that is, to provide its advice and consent in the nomination process.
It would seem that a rule of the chamber concerning decorum should be subordinate to the pursuit of an important constitutional check on the executive branch.

When Senator Sessions became President Trump’s nominee to head the Justice Department, he was no longer just a Senator. He had become a potential member of the executive branch and therefore subject to the advice and consent process. It would seem, then, that a full consideration of the previous actions and record of that nominee—including the judgment of those who are in a good position to assess that record—is fair game for consideration during the process of advice and consent. Even if those allegations include remarks that might be perceived as impugning the character of a sitting U.S. Senator.

Beyond this technical point, however, it’s hard to buy that Senator Warren’s reading of the King letter impugned the character of Senator Sessions. First, the letter was an account of his behavior not as a U.S. Senator but in his position as a U.S. Attorney. And, perhaps more directly, the views expressed by Mrs. King assessed the actions of an officer of the executive branch—the same branch Sessions would serve as head of the Justice Department.

Even if we accept the notion that Senator Warren’s reading of the letter was out of line under a strict application of Rule 19, consider if that same letter were written about Betsy DeVos. Senator Warren could have freely read the letter without fear of rebuke. DeVos was not a sitting senator at the time of her confirmation, therefore, Rule 19 simply does not apply.

In 1989, the former U.S. Senator John Tower’s nomination to lead the Department of Defense was rejected after senators openly discussed documented allegations of womanizing and alcohol abuse. Although Tower was not an active member of the Senate at the time of his nomination by President George H.W. Bush, the Senate did not shy away from this important and difficult discussion about a former colleague. It defies reason, therefore, that the Senate chose to silence one of its members rather than have a complete and full discussion of Sessions’ qualifications to serve as Attorney General—simply because he is an active U.S. Senator.  This is, quite simply, a dereliction of its constitutional duty.

At the end of the day, it is not a surprise that Senator Daines upheld McConnell’s objection and the Republican majority supported his ruling. As University of Maryland Professor Frances Lee documents, senators increasingly vote along party lines not just on issues of policy and ideology, but on routine procedural matters. Why? Because the parties are more interested in building a mentality of teamsmanship at the expense of cross-partisan collegiality and cooperation.
While that teamsmanship might yield electoral benefits in the short-term, it comes at great expense to Madison’s carefully constructed system of checks and balances.
The rise of teamsmanship along with the weaponization of congressional oversight (which Matt Dull and I have documented a few articles), leaves Congress vulnerable to the continued expansion of the executive branch accruing more and more power.  Without congressional ambition vigorously countering executive ambition, we risk the rise of a majority tyranny running roughshod over our individual liberties.