Thursday, November 15, 2012

The 2012 Senate Race is Over. Now here comes 2014!

My readers know that I've spent the past 22 months following the Tester-Rehberg race here in Montana very closely. As things began to heat up and more of my time became taken up by the race, it became clear to me that blogging during the campaign--as much as I wanted to--became too much to undertake both personally and professionally. I felt that what I had to say could wait until the book and many of my observations (profound or not will be for you to judge) about that incredible experience can be found there. I will likely try out some of my thinking about the race as I write in the upcoming months here, but there's so much else to write and talk about!

Now that Senator Tester has been reelected, the other Senate race has begun: Max Baucus' pursuit of a seventh term in office. It is clear that as of November 2012, he has some work to do. PPP conducted its last poll in the Tester-Rehberg race on November 4th.

 Here's what Jon Tester's job approval rating was in that poll:

47% Approve
46% Disapprove

Tester's job approval rating in November of 2010 in PPP's poll was:

50% Approve
40% Disapprove

PPP asked voters about Max Baucus in both those polls. Here's what they thought:

Max Baucus November 2010                                                Max Baucus November 2012
38% Approve                                                                       41% Approve
53% Disapprove                                                                   44% Disapprove

Jon Tester was right side up by ten points in his approval ratings two years prior to his reelection in a brutally competitive race--and he managed to stay right side up in the final days despite an onslaught of negativity over 16 months. Max Baucus is already underwater--and while his job approval numbers have improved over the past two years, it is absolutely clear he's got a tough road ahead. The $64,000 question is whether Republicans will field a strong candidate against him. Stay tuned. Montana politics is never dull.

No comments: