2014 Montana House Race: How the Fundraising Numbers Stack up

*UPDATE: I originally posted this blog last week, but there were errors in the numbers that were my fault. I have corrected those mistakes and now actually have all the data from the candidates filing their April quarterly reports from the FEC. My apologies, but the good news is the substantive interpretation does not change.

Candidates for the open Montana House have released their first quarter fundraising numbers for 2014. It is important to put these numbers into some broader context instead of merely focusing on who is doing better relative to others in each quarter.

Fortunately, the 2012 House seat was an open seat race--as the seat is for this cycle. That helps us make apples to apples comparisons.

First, let's look at fundraising in the 2012 cycle compared to the 2014 cycle, quarter by quarter to date. Note that we still have yet to hear from one of the House candidates (Driscoll) as to what their April numbers look like:

Click the picture above to zoom in and check out the numbers.

Four points. Look at Zinke and Lewis' fundraising totals relative to the 2012 nominees. Zinke has already raised more money in the cycle YTD than Daines did in 2012. And, more impressively, he's done it much less time. John Lewis, in the three quarters he's been raising money, has more than doubled Kim Gillan's take and raised more than the top two vote getters in the 2012 Democratic Primary, Gillan and Wilmer. Finally, note the steep decline in Stapleton's numbers. It certainly suggests to me he's fading quickly. I felt that the emergence of Ryan Zinke really put a dent in his candidacy--at least, I'm not sure what Stapleton's niche among Republican primary voters is. Finally, Rosendale's campaign is largely self-funded. This presents a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they can concentrate on campaigning instead of raising money. On the other, it is important to connect with the activist-donor base of the party--and if you aren't, that's potentially an issue. Even Stapleton outraised Senator Rosendale in individual contributions for the quarter.

John Lewis, relative to the Democratic House candidates in 2012, is performing much stronger. He's raised almost as much as all 2012 Democratic candidates, and in less time. And, financially, Ryan Zinke is clearly the strongest candidate as evidenced by his performance relative to the Republican nominee in 2012, Steve Daines.

Let's look at the numbers in a slightly different way.

Here I totaled the amounts by party. Note that in 2012, Steve Daines raised more than all the Democratic House candidates combined through the first quarter of the election year--but the difference between the parties was a relatively modest $130,000 or so.

In this cycle while John Lewis has raised about $700,000 (note John Driscoll's numbers aren't available yet, but I'm not expecting much at all from him in terms of contributions), it is only 34 percent the combined total of the Republican candidates! That suggests to me, at least, an enthusiasm gap among Republican and Democratic donors--an enthusiasm gap that seems to favor the Republicans. Midterm elections tend to favor the party opposing the president--and perhaps the fundraising numbers are indicative of that fact. At least, donors tend to be politically sophisticated and certainly understand this.

Republicans will need to spend much of their money fighting for the primary nomination, but conducting an expensive primary election doesn't necessarily mean you will be ill-prepared for the general election. In fact, Marquette Political Science Professor Amber Wichowsky (a fellow graduate of the University of Wisconsin) finds little evidence that a tough primary hurts candidates in general elections. See the NPR story here or her research paper here.

I tell my students this repeatedly: Having the most money does not mean you win an election. You only need enough. But in an open seat contest, having the most helps considerable because it allows one to build much needed name recognition both in the primary and in the general election.

Others 2012 Zinke 2014 Lewis 2014 Rosendale 2014 Stapleton 2014 Arntzen 2014 Driscoll 2014 140151 26435 91881 32692 189571 286437 67751 26349 447610 204899 320899 30796 61995 460760 300000 ? ? ? 147471 908370 504899 320899 30796 ? ?

Montana Senate Race: Fundraising and Outside Spending

I'm back from a trip to Indiana and the great Midwest. While away, the Montana Senate race did not wait for me. Indeed, a lot happened--including new ads, the release of 2nd Quarter Fundraising numbers, and much, much more.

A quick update for now. Last quarter, Congressman Rehberg matched Senator Tester's fundraising totals. This quarter, Senator Tester nearly doubled Congressman Rehberg's haul: $1.9 million versus $1.1 million. Senator Tester won the quarter, but both candidates continue to rack up impressive sums of money. For those of you keeping track at home, here is a quick graph of fundraising to date:

Fundraising in Montana's 2012 Senate Race by Quarter

Data obtained from candidate press releases and the Federal Election Commission.

What is perhaps more interesting is the fact that both Senator Tester and Congressman Rehberg, despite potentially breaking fundraising records here in Montana, will likely get outspent on television by outside interest groups. A couple of weeks ago, I traveled across the state to review the political files at Montana's television stations to try and figure out how much money is being spent on this race (and thanks very much to the staffs at those stations--your courtesy and helpfulness were just wonderful). Guess what? My conservative estimate is that 68% of the money spent on broadcast television advertisements is by interest groups. In other words, of the $6.8 million spent on television broadcast ads, more than $4.6 million was NOT spent by the parties OR the candidates running for the seat.

This is a CONSERVATIVE estimate and only counts money spent between March 2011 and mid-June 2012. Some spending is missed, and because there is some variation based on how each station keeps its records, I had to fill in some gaps with estimates. It also does not include money spent on cable advertisements, internet advertisements, grassroots organization, radio, mail, or phone calls. It only represents advertisements on broadcast television stations in Butte, Bozeman, Great Falls, Helena, Billings, Kalispell, and Missoula.Because there's been so much outside money, the tone of the campaign has been quite negative. The literature and campaign tracking projects like CMAG, the Wisconsin Advertising Project, and the Wesleyan Media Project all show that outside groups almost universally air negative ads when they spend money. The effect of Supreme Court decisions Citizens United and Wisconsin Right to Life have been crystal clear in Montana.

Montana, we ain't seen nothing yet. The fall will bring more ads, more spending, and more attempts to influence our choices at the ballot box. Get ready for a fun ride.

Montana Senate Race: Tester and Rehberg both raise $1.2 Million

Less than an hour apart, the Tester and Rehberg campaigns released their first quarter fundraising numbers for 2012. Both had impressive hauls and both raised essentially the same amount: $1.2 million. Tester raised about $9000 more than Rehberg to be exact. Senator Tester continues his string of $1 million dollar plus quarters, and Congressman Rehberg had his best quarter since he entered the race and transferred money from his House campaign account. More importantly, he nearly doubled his fundraising from the final quarter of 2011 when he only raised less than $660,000.

Hmmm....haven't I been saying this is going to be a costly election?

Final Fourth Quarter Fundraising for Tester-Rehberg Senate Race

I reported recently that Senator Tester raised close to $1.2 million in the final quarter of 2011. Congressman Rehberg raised substantially less for the quarter, bringing in only $656,000. For your information, I provide a graph of the money each campaign reported raising for each quarter in 2011 for your information. I also recommend that voters inspect each campaign's year end reports, available at the FEC.

I have some other posts in the works...look for them soon.

Montana Senate Race: Final 2011 Fundraising numbers coming in...

Senator Jon Tester continues to raise substantial sums in his reelection campaign. In the final FEC reporting quarter for 2011, he raised more than $1 million--as he has every quarter during the year. Read the story here.

When Congressman Denny Rehberg's numbers are available, I'll post that information.

Tester-Rehberg: Third Quarter Fundraising

The first hints of how third quarter fundraising went for Senator Tester and Congressman Rehberg are now available. According to AP, Tester continued his torrid pace and again raised more than $1 million dollars. See the story here. Congressman Rehberg's numbers are not yet available.

This is further evidence, folks, that the Senate race between these two is likely to break fundraising and spending records here in Montana.

More later when the Congressman's numbers are announced.

Steve Daines' FEC Filing: What do the first quarter numbers REALLY mean?

Last week, Dan Person at the Bozeman Chronicle reported that Steve Daines, the Republican challenger to incumbent Senator Jon Tester, raised nearly a quarter of a million dollars in the two months since he filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC.

That’s a pretty substantial accomplishment at first blush. By comparison, Tester had raised only $60,000 at the time of his first reporting period after he announced his challenge to then-incumbent Senator Burns in 2005. Even by the second reporting period, he had only $300,000 or so raised. It should be further noted that Senator Tester reported $500,000 cash-on-hand at the close of the October 2010 quarterly filing (and may have much more now—his report is not yet available at the FEC's website). In 2006, Tester spent more than $5 million to oust Burns. Frankly, I’d expect a larger cash on-hand number at this stage of the game. Let’s see what happens when the January numbers come out. If those numbers do not substantially improve, it might (and I suggest this oh-so-tentatively) that Tester may be thinking about retiring. And if that happens, the dynamics in this race change dramatically.

Daines’ fundraising numbers sure sound impressive. But to put the amount into context, Daines’ filing needs to be carefully reviewed—and I will do this once it becomes publicly available. Here’s what I’ll be looking at closely:

Political Action Committees: Has Daines received any money from national PACs? PACs contribute strategically and generally receive access to internal polls. If a number of PACs have contributed early to Daines, it suggests that he’s polling well and could put up a substantial challenge to Tester.

Donors Contributing the Maximum Amount: How many donors have maxed out? If many of the donors have given the legal maximum this early, it suggests two things. First, these folks are strongly committed to Daines. Secondly, however, it also says that Daines will need to expand his donor base dramatically in the upcoming quarter to improve upon the first quarter numbers. This, of course, is a difficult task.

Out-of-state Money: I look at where contributions are coming from for two reasons. First, if a substantial amount of money is coming from within Montana, that suggests a good deal of political support within the state. However, to raise the substantial sums of money necessary to win a Senate election, candidates often have to draw upon donations from outside the state. Does Daines appear to have the makings of a national donor network at this early stage? If so, it’s also a good sign. Now, to be fair, national money usually comes into a race LATER—when it becomes clearer which Senate races are targeted by the national committees, and once PACs have signaled which races they are putting their resources into.

Who in Montana Has Given Daines Money: If Steve Daines has raised most of his money from Bozeman, family connections, and business associates from RightNow Technologies but has not yet begun to expand beyond those connections, it might suggest that’s he’s tapped all the easy money early. This simply means that it will be harder to sustain his momentum UNLESS those connections have not yet maxed out OR his campaign begins to catch on among GOP activists throughout the state.

In summary, I was impressed initially with the Daines fundraising numbers—but will reserve final judgment until I’ve looked at the January filing more closely. Surely, if I worked for Jon Tester, I would take note and start working the phones.