Showing posts with label Dick Fenno. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dick Fenno. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Keystone and the Montana Senate Race

Yesterday, the White House announced that it is rejecting the proposed Keystone pipeline project (read the story here). Keystone was to carry oil generated from Canadian tar sands across the mid-section of the United States to refineries in Texas. The pipeline promised to create a large number of construction jobs and reduce American dependence on Middle Eastern oil, but objections were raised by environmental organizations concerned about the pipeline crossing a major aquifer in Nebraska and the huge carbon footprint caused by tar sands extraction procedures. In particular, the pipeline split two key interest groups important to the Democratic Party: unions, interested in the construction jobs, and environmental organizations interested in moving away from fossil fuels.


The pipeline was set to cross Montana, and--generally speaking--has received widespread support from both Democrats and Republicans in the state. Both Senator Tester and Congressman Rehberg have expressed support for the pipeline project, and both quickly released official statements expressing their disappointment about the Obama Administration's decision.


Senator Tester released the following statement on the Keystone decision:


“I am disappointed in the President’s decision. Just as I have supported Montana’s renewable energy jobs, I have long supported responsibly building this pipeline with the highest safety standards and with respect for private property rights. Oil, coal, natural gas, wind, geothermal and biofuels all provide good jobs in Montana. I will continue to champion Montana’s role in securing America’s energy future.”



Congressman Rehberg's official statement was a bit more forceful. It reads in part:



"Today’s shameful decision by President Obama to put his re-election ahead of thousands of jobs for American families shows just how much this Administration and its allies have bought into the radical anti-job agenda of environmental extremists like the League of Conservation Voters."



The campaign reaction has been a bit different. Congressman Rehberg's campaign released, in part, the following statement:


"Today's job-killing decision by Tester's allies in the Obama Administration hands a victory to the radical environmental obstructionists who bankroll Tester's re-election campaign, and strikes a harsh blow to Montana workers and families who would have benefited from thousands of pipeline jobs and a projected $7.5 million in revenues added to Montana's state treasury."


The Rehberg folks have been attempting to tie Tester to an unpopular Democratic president and his administration in an effort to show that Senator Tester is not, as political scientist Dick Fenno would term it, "one of us" but "one of them". In particular, they cite a statistic saying that Senator Tester has sided with the Obama administration 97 percent of the time (based on an analysis by Congressional Quarterly of Senate votes in 2010). More on all of this in an upcoming post.


The Tester campaign's response to the Rehberg campaign's press release? Aaron Murphy, Tester's spokesman, replied in an e-mail sent to reporters covering the campaign:


"Congressman Rehberg is the only member of Montana's congressional delegation who has voted against the Keystone XL pipeline. In other words, he "failed to stop himself from blocking Montana jobs.



On Tuesday, December 20, Congressman Rehberg followed orders from his party bosses and voted against the Keystone XL pipeline, and against a tax holiday for working families (read more HERE)."



The Tester campaign has been attempting to show how Congressman Rehberg looks out for himself and represents the interests of the Republican Party nationally, not Montana. Rehberg is "not one of us" but "one of them"--a tool of the Republican Party bosses. Senator Tester, according to this narrative, is an independent, bipartisan voice for the state. The Tester campaign pushes back, saying that Senator Tester is his own man and not beholden to President Obama, noting the instances where he has broken from the administration and national Democrats (e.g, the administration's job bill or the DREAM Act).



This is what we call framing in the business. Campaigns seek to advance particular narratives and discuss events in terms of that narrative. What is interesting in the Montana Senate race is how important it is in a rural, agricultural state like Montana to be perceived as "one of us" by the voters. Politics is about identities, and the identity of who is most like Montanans is an important point that the campaigns have contested from the very beginning of this race. Part of being "one of us" is making decisions that a regular Montanan would make in Washington. And both campaigns claim that they do a better job of doing on Capitol Hill what the average Montanan would want.



Both campaigns responded to the Keystone decision rapidly, and Montana Republican Party has even sent out an e-mail in an attempt to raise funds. Both sides used the opportunity to return to their core narratives of who is doing the best job in Washington and who has Montana's interests best at heart.



It should be noted that the Obama administration did not cancel the project on the merits, but argued that the 60-day deadline imposed by Congress did not allow for a full review of the project. The Canadian company can apply for a permit again, but the delay will certainly prevent any construction jobs from going online before the fall election.



Which version of the events will Montanans find most credible? That's for the voters to decide, and we'll find out over the next 11 months.


Thursday, April 10, 2008

Hoosiers for Obama

Last night, I had the opportunity to see Barack Obama’s campaign rally here in South Bend. Tickets were gone within ten minutes on Tuesday, but because of my longstanding relationships with the local media, I was able to get credentials in return for some live post-event analysis.

As I sit here and begin to form my thoughts, I am reminded of the pitfalls and cautions of the participant-observer method of social science. Political scientist and congressional scholar Dick Fenno spent the bulk of his professional career following politicians around at home and in Washington to better understand their perceptions of representation. In a particularly interesting methodological piece (Watching Politicians: Essays on Participant Observation), Fenno has written how difficult it can be to put your own emotions aside and not become invested in the success of those you spend considerable time observing. Fenno notes that he came to like the senators and congressmen he travelled with, and found himself wanting them to win and to succeed regardless of their particular politics. To do good political analysis, it is important to remember to keep your own emotions and passions in check and not get caught up in the “moment”.

And yet, a political rally is perhaps the hardest place to keep those passions at bay. The very activity is designed to pull you up, to get you excited, to stomp your feet, to clap your hands, to say “Yes, We Can” with the crowd. I saw members of the media wearing Obama stickers and clapping with the crowd. I did my best to remain detached and stick to my main purpose for being there: to understand the sensation that is Barack Obama and why he might come out of the political wilderness and capture the presidential nomination.

In terms of Obama’s speech, I did not hear much that I hadn’t heard or read elsewhere. The speech was his standard spiel, and not particularly tailored to Indiana. Contrast this with Hillary’s speech, which had a laser-like focus on the economy and certainly was meant to stir the union folk in the crowd to action.

No, the speech itself did not tell me much about Obama. Rather, it was his unscripted moments that spoke volumes about the man. Unlike Hillary, Barack did not take questions. The questions allowed Hillary to showcase one of her strengths: the ability to talk policy. What struck me about Barack was his poise and confidence. But do not confuse confidence with arrogance. I’ve read elsewhere that Barack thinks he’s all that and a bag of chips. It will shock no one that politicians have egos; a healthy dose of ego is required put oneself through the gut-wrenching and exhausting daily slog that is a campaign.

Arrogance is not what I sensed. Instead, I sensed that this man knew who he was and was sure of his leadership abilities. And he was human. Barack was funny, engaging, and witty. At one moment, he said that he’s shaken tens of thousands of hands, and kissed hundreds of babies. Then he stopped for a moment and pointed to a baby in the crowd in front of him, saying, “And I’m going to kiss that baby, too. He’s a cutie”. The crowd roared its appreciation, and he chuckled. When he wrapped up his speech, the crowd began to shout, “NO, NO”. Barack just smiled and said, “C’mon guys, it’s late. We need to get some sleep so we can get to work.” Barack was, quite simply, engaging. He passes, I think, the beer buddy factor. I wanted belly up to the bar with him and quaff a brew or two with him.

The difference, though, is I felt I could talk about anything with him at that bar. Sports, religion, politics, faith, problems at the office—you name it. Barack seemed to me more like the close friend you confide in and share your problems with than the buddy you talk sports with while watching the game. Perhaps this explains some of his attraction: his ability, in a short period of time, to develop an attachment with people. Bill Clinton has this—some call it “EQ” or emotional intelligence. Presidential scholar Fred Greenstein has pointed out that EQ is something that is in short supply, but something that is particularly useful for successful leadership. A lack of EQ, on the other hand, can be devastating (witness Nixon).




For those looking for policy details, there were none. But the crowd didn’t seem to care. 3,500 folks turned out in the middle of the week and waited until 10:45 to see Barack. Some probably didn’t get home until after midnight. Yet no one left. The crowd was electric and the cheers for Barack upon his entrance deafening. This crowd didn’t need the details: it had largely made up its mind already. They wanted Barack, and they wanted him now. If the energy in that room translates into volunteering and voting, Barack may very well win Indiana—a state demographically more to Hillary’s favor.

This morning, as I conclude my thoughts on last night’s rally, I think back to Fenno: Did I keep my emotions in check? Could I stop myself from rooting for Barack? And the answer is no. But I rooted for Hillary after her rally, and suspect I would do the same after seeing John McCain. The simple fact of the matter, I am biased, but not in the normal way one might expect. Sure, I have particular policy beliefs and an ideological slant. But as I spend more time observing the political process, I’ve learned that I have another bias, too. I like politicians and I want to see them succeed. It’s too bad that they all can’t win.